Buccaneers vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 15, 2025, 9:42 AM

min read

A Buffalo Bills helmet sits on the turf next to a couple of footballs prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

The Bills are -5.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
Total (Over/Under): 48 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (6-3-0) on Nov. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Bills Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

Bet now on Bills vs Buccaneers & all NFL games with BetMGM

Buccaneers vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Buccaneers	+5.5 -110	48 -110	200
Bills	-5.5 -110	48 -110	-250

Buccaneers vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 56.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Bills vs Buccaneers and all NFL games with BetMGM

Get a New Player Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

Rachaad White has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.38 Units / 30% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Sterling Shepard has hit the Longest Reception Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 54% ROI)
Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 57% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 25% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 17% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 29% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.05 Units / 36% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.22 Units / 37% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.27 Units / 18% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.55 Units / 14% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 5-4 (+0.5 Units / 5.05% ROI).

Buccaneers are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 25% ROI
Buccaneers are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Buccaneers are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 4-5 (-1.5 Units / -15.23% ROI).

Bills are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -11.54% ROI
Bills are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Bills are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bills defense have allowed 0.45 epa per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.10.

The Bills defense have allowed 0.88 epa per play against play action passes since Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Bills defense has allowed just 2.6 receptions per game (23/9) to TEs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.

The Bills defense have allowed 14.1 yards per play against play action passes since Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.5.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .280.

The Buccaneers are 3-1 (.750) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Buccaneers are 4-1 (.800) on the road this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .465.

The Buccaneers are 4-1 (.800) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .601.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills