Browns vs. Packers: NFL Week 3 Odds, Prediction

With extended time to prepare, the Packers go for a 3-0 start as road favorites against the Browns. 

Green Bay dispatched the Commanders to open Week 2. A fast start from Matt LaFleur’s side has seen Green Bay drop significantly in the Super Bowl odds at 2-0 ATS. 

Cleveland fell 41-17 at Baltimore in Week 2, failing to cover as 11.5-point road underdogs. Kevin Stefanski’s team, at 0-2, faces four games in a row against 2024 playoff teams. 

Bet on Browns vs. Packers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Browns vs. Packers: NFL Week 3 Odds

Browns vs. Packers Prediction

Tuesday, September 16

The line has come out for the Browns’ 1H team total at BetMGM. Oddsmakers price the market at 9.5 points juiced -145 to the under. 

As noted below, a discrepancy exists between this price’s implied probability and the rate at which Cleveland finished under 9.5 points in the first half last season. 

The Browns scored seven or fewer in 12 of 17 first halves last year for a 71% hit rate. No change occurs when you measure the performance against 9.5. 

At -145, the implied probability for this market is 59.2% compared to 71% last year. As a result, I like the Browns to score nine or fewer points at home on Sunday. 

Monday, September 15

Based on Green Bay’s defensive record against good offenses and the rest edge for the Packers, my Browns vs Packers prediction is the Browns 1H Team Total Under. 

It should not go ignored how strong Green Bay’s defense has played to start the year. 

Jeff Hafley’s unit has played two games against teams that finished sixth or better in offensive DVOA last year, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Cumulatively, the Lions (third) and Commanders (sixth) have notched six points in the first half (three by each). 

Now the Packers have extended rest against a unit that ranked 32nd in offensive DVOA last season. 

Cleveland scored 10 first-half points against Cincinnati. However, that came against one of the weaker defenses in the league. 

Last week, the Browns faced Baltimore, which finished sixth in defensive DVOA last year. The Joe Flacco-led offense managed only a field goal in Baltimore. 

By all accounts, the Packers defense appears closer in quality to Baltimore than Cincinnati. 

Last year, the Browns averaged only 6.3 points in the first half, including 4.8 at home. Here’s a breakdown of how they’ve performed against certain lines across all 17 games last year:

• Under 7.5 Points: 12 of 17 (70.6%)
• Under 6.5 Points: 10 of 17 (58.8%)
• Under 3.5 Points: 7 of 17 (41.2%)

Most of this prediction will come down to where the line opens. 

Either way, it’s difficult to see a game script where Cleveland jumps on a Green Bay defense that has looked very good against two strong offenses. 

Betting Browns vs. Packers: NFL Public Betting