Browns vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

General view as the Seattle Seahawks kick a point after against the Detroit Lions during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Oct. 28, 2018.
(AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
  • The Lions are -9.5 point favorites vs the Browns
  • Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Cleveland Browns (1-2-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (2-1-0) on Sep. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Detroit, MI.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Browns vs. Lions Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Browns+9.5 -11044.5 -110390
Lions -9.5 -11044.5 -110-525

Browns vs. Lions Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 78.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Browns vs Lions Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Browns will cover the spread with 63.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Joe Flacco has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.96 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Jerome Ford has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 34% ROI)
  • David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.87 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+1.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.55 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 3Q Spread in 15 of their last 18 games (+12.40 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Browns are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 46.67% ROI
  • Browns are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Browns are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Lions are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 42.11% ROI
  • Lions are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Lions are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Browns have averaged -0.26 epa per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Browns are averaging 11.0 drives per TD in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

The Browns have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Browns have run successful plays on 39% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Lions have averaged 8.8 yards per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Lions have averaged 0.43 epa per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Lions have averaged 0.70 epa per play on first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Lions have averaged 6.9 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions have averaged 8.8 yards per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Lions have averaged 0.43 epa per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Lions have averaged 0.70 epa per play on first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Lions have averaged 6.9 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Browns have averaged -0.26 epa per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Browns are averaging 11.0 drives per TD in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

The Browns have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Browns have run successful plays on 39% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats

The Browns have averaged -0.26 epa per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Browns are averaging 11.0 drives per TD in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

The Browns have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Browns have run successful plays on 39% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions have averaged 8.8 yards per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Lions have averaged 0.43 epa per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Lions have averaged 0.70 epa per play on first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Lions have averaged 6.9 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats

The Browns have averaged -0.26 epa per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Browns are averaging 11.0 drives per TD in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.6.

The Browns have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Browns have run successful plays on 39% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions have averaged 8.8 yards per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Lions have averaged 0.43 epa per play at home this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Lions have averaged 0.70 epa per play on first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Lions have averaged 6.9 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.