- The Broncos are -4.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 38.5 points
- Watch this game on
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The Denver Broncos (2-0-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (0-1-1) on Aug. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in New Orleans, LA.
The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-115).
The Broncos vs. Saints Over/Under is 38.5 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Broncos | -4.5 -115 | 38.5 -105 | -220 |
| Saints | +4.5 -105 | 38.5 -115 | +185 |
Broncos vs. Saints Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 70.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Broncos vs Saints Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 66.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- Evan Engram has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 88% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+8.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.05 Units / 22% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+4.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.78 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+3.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Broncos were 7-2 (.778) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .611.
The Broncos were 7-2 (.778) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .598.
The Broncos were 9-3 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .531.
The Broncos were undefeated (5-0) vs bottom 10 offenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .729.
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Saints were winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .389.
The Saints were winless (0-4) when passing for less than 200 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Saints were winless (0-9) when allowing 22 or more points last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .255.
The Saints were winless (0-6) vs top 10 run defenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .300.
Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints
Saints RBs had 42.8 receiving yards per game last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars averaged 41.2 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Saints ran just 6.8% offensive plays in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL. The Jaguars allowed their opponent to run just 9.7% of plays in the red zone in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Saints RBs averaged 7.9 targets per game last season — highest in NFL. The Jaguars allowed 5.2 receptions per game to RBs last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Broncos averaged 0.50 epa per play on play action passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cardinals allowed 0.31 epa per play on play action passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
The Broncos were successful on 58.7% of plays they ran on play action passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL. The Cardinals allowed a success rate of 62.1% on play action passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Broncos scored 5.5 points per Red Zone drive in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-best in NFL. The Cardinals allowed 4.9 points per Red Zone drive in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-4th-worst in NFL.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos averaged 0.17 epa per play on contested throws last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Broncos targeted TEs 13% of the time (72 Pass Attempts/570 plays) last season — 3rd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
The Broncos were sacked on just 4% of pass attempts (24/594) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
The Broncos ran successful plays on 39% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints converted late downs on just 11 of 280 plays (4%) with 7-10 yards to go last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.
The Saints targeted RBs 24% of the time (131 Pass Attempts/551 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Saints ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Saints converted first downs on just 4 of 45 plays (9%) when their QB was scrambling last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 38% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Broncos defense sacked opponents 63 times last season — most in NFL.
The Broncos defense averaged 3.7 sacks per game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.4.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Saints defense allowed 6.6 yards per play in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.
The Saints defense has allowed first downs on 37% of pass attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 56%.
The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 60% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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