Broncos vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 30, 2025, 9:57 AM

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FILE - FedEx Field, home of the Washington Commanders NFL football team, is shown before the start of a football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, in Landover, Md. A group led by Josh Harris and Mitchell Rales that includes Magic Johnson has an agreement in principle to buy the NFL's Washington Commanders from longtime owner Dan Snyder for a North American professional sports team record $6 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Thursday, April 13, 2023, because the deal had not been announced. (AP Photo/Nick Wass, File)

(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

The Broncos are -6.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU

The Denver Broncos (9-2-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (3-8-0) on Nov. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Landover, MD.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-118).

The Broncos vs. Commanders Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Broncos vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Broncos	-6.5 -118	43.5 -110	-325
Commanders	+6.5 -102	43.5 -110	260

Broncos vs. Commanders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 73.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Broncos vs Commanders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.50 Units / 59% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

Bo Nix has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 85% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Longest Rush Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 68% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.35 Units / 46% ROI)
RJ Harvey has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
Bo Nix has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.49 Units / 35% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.24 Units / 46% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.80 Units / 44% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)

Broncos Best Bets:

The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 24% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.79 Units / 26% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.75 Units / 28% ROI)

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 5-6 (-1.5 Units / -12.5% ROI).

Broncos are 9-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 30.11% ROI
Broncos are 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
Broncos are 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 3-8 (-5.7 Units / -47.9% ROI).

Commanders are 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -41.5% ROI
Commanders are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.13% ROI
Commanders are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.13% ROI

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Commanders defense have allowed 11.7 yards per play open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.

The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 81% of pass attempts from their own territory since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 148.6 open coverage (155 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 122.1.

The Commanders defense has allowed successful plays on 81% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Broncos have gone three and out on 29% of their drives this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Broncos have run 33% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Broncos have run 42% of their plays in their opponent’s territory this season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Broncos have run successful plays on 30% of plays on motion plays since Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders