Broncos vs Chargers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 3

An exterior view of SoFi Stadium before an NFL football game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
(AP Photo/Eric Thayer)
  • The Chargers are -3 point favorites vs the Broncos
  • Total (Over/Under): 46 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Denver Broncos (1-1-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (2-0-0) on Sep. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Inglewood, CA.

The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (100).

The Broncos vs. Chargers Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.

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Broncos vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Broncos+3 -12046 -110130
Chargers -3 10046 -110-155

Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 61.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Broncos vs Chargers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 61.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today

  • Evan Engram has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • J.K. Dobbins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Bo Nix has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+5.15 Units / 50% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.55 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Najee Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Cameron Dicker has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ladd McConkey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.50 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.93 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.82 Units / 64% ROI)

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Broncos are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -4.27% ROI
  • Broncos are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Broncos are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 2-0 (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Chargers are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 84.21% ROI
  • Chargers are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Chargers are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Broncos were 9-3 (.750) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .593.

The Broncos were 1-2 (.333) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .553.

The Broncos were 6-2 (.750) at home last season — T-7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .524.

The Broncos were 2-3 (.400) vs top 10 run defenses last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .300.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Chargers were winless (0-4) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .335.

The Chargers were undefeated (9-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.

The Chargers are undefeated (9-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .614.

The Chargers are 1-9 (.100) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have been successful on just 23.3% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed a success rate of just 27.7% on rush attempts with a light front since the 2024 season — best in NFL.

The Chargers have been successful on just 31.8% of plays they have run against a light front since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed a success rate of just 31.6% with a light front since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Chargers have been successful on just 43.6% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2024 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed a success rate of just 42.3% on rush attempts with a base rush since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Broncos allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 3.3% of pass attempts last week — best in NFL. The Chargers had pressured opposing QBs on just 14.0% of passing plays last week — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Broncos have gone three and out on 0% of their drives in the second half this season — T-best in NFL. The Chargers have forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives in the second half this season — T-worst in NFL.

The Broncos have thrown for just 5.4 yards per attempt out of the shotgun this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed just 5.0 yards per dropback against the shotgun this season — 4th-best in NFL.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats

The Broncos averaged 0.17 epa per play on contested throws last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.

The Broncos converted late downs on 1 of 10 plays (10%) with over 10 yards to go in Week 2 — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4%.

The Broncos converted fourth downs on 13 of 14 plays (93%) in short yardage situations last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 66%.

The Broncos allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 3% of pass attempts in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats

The Chargers threw the ball 19% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/63 plays) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chargers have thrown the ball 21% of the time (15 Pass Attempts/71 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chargers have run successful plays on 75% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chargers have run the ball on 79% of plays (56 carries/71 plays) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats

The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 38% of plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 24% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of plays since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Broncos defense has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 3 of 62 attempts (5%) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1%.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats

The Chargers defense allowed 13 broken tackles in Week 2 — most in NFL.

The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 61.9 (82 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 92.7.

The Chargers defense has allowed first downs on 29% of pass attempts since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Chargers defense allowed 7 rushing TDs on 414 carries (59.1 Carries Per TD) last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 27.9.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.