Bills vs. Patriots: NFL Week 5 Odds, Prediction

The Bills will go for a 5-0 start and 14th straight home win on Sunday night against the Patriots. 

Buffalo received a scare in Week 4 against the Saints. The Bills earned a SU win as 15.5-point home favorites against New Orleans, but failed to cover the spread in a 31-19 win. 

New England produced its best performance of the season in Week 4. Mike Vrabel’s team easily covered as 5.5-point home favorites in a 42-13 win over the Panthers. 

Bet on Bills vs. Patriots and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Bills vs. Patriots: NFL Week 5 Odds

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction

Based on the Bills’ recent defensive improvements and the Patriots’ inexperience against good defenses, my Bills vs Patriots prediction is the Total Under 50 Points (-110). 

The concern here is whether New England’s defense can limit a powerful Buffalo offense. 

Buffalo leads the league in offensive DVOA. However, it has come against the easiest set of opposing defenses, according to ftnfantasy.com. 

New England hasn’t looked good defensively. Despite playing a really easy schedule, the team ranks 28th in defensive DVOA. 

Christian Gonzalez’s return undoubtedly helps the defense. Last week, New England ranked seventh in defensive EPA per play on plays excluding turnovers. 

But it’s not as if they faced the greatest show on turf. In fact, Carolina’s offense regularly features as one of the NFL’s worst under Bryce Young. 

The matchup that gives me confidence? Buffalo’s defense against New England’s offense. 

I came away shocked to learn the Patriots sit 11th in offensive DVOA through four weeks. However, the record has come against the fourth-easiest set of defenses. 

Buffalo has turned the defense around since Week 1 against Baltimore. Over the last three weeks, Buffalo ranks fifth and sixth in EPA per play and success rate, respectively. 

In those three games, the Patriots rank second in dropback success rate. 

That should help against New England. Entering SNF, Josh McDaniels’ offense sits eighth in pass offense DVOA compared to 23rd via the run. 

If only one team is contributing to the total, this number suddenly becomes very high. Additionally, high primetime totals generally finish under the total. 

Since 2004, SNF or MNF games with a total between 49 and 52 and a home favorite are 43-23-1 to the under. 

When the total falls between 49 and 50: 25-8-1 to the under. 

Betting Bills vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting