Bills vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 20, 2025, 1:51 PM

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A detail view of a Houston Texans helmet on the sideline prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

(AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

The Bills are -6 point favorites vs the Texans
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
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The Buffalo Bills (7-3-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (5-5-0) on Nov. 20. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Houston, TX.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Bills vs. Texans Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bills	-6 -110	43.5 -105	-285
Texans	+6 -110	43.5 -115	230

Bills vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 69.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 56.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.65 Units / 65% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 54% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 54% ROI)
Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 37% ROI)
Woody Marks has hit the Carries Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.15 Units / 61% ROI)
Dalton Schultz has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.08 Units / 36% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.27 Units / 20% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 41% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.05 Units / 42% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.80 Units / 19% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.99 Units / 38% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.40 Units / 16% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.30 Units / 16% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.25 Units / 16% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.57% ROI).

Bills are 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -8.3% ROI
Bills are 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bills are 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 4-6 (-2.65 Units / -23.98% ROI).

Texans are 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -5.23% ROI
Texans are 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -32.73% ROI
Texans are 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 24.55% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Texans have run 10% of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Texans have gone for two on 30% of PATs this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 50% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since Week 8 — best in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

The Texans have averaged just 2.6 yards per play on contested throws this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bills defense have allowed 0.49 epa per play against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Bills defense has allowed 10 of 27 (37%) TDs through the air this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Bills defense has allowed 17 rushing TDs this season — most in NFL.

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 67% of pass attempts against play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans