Bills vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 30, 2025, 9:57 AM

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Pittsburgh Steelers fans wave their Terrible Towels during the first half of an NFL football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

The Bills are -3.5 point favorites vs the Steelers
Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (7-4-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-0) on Nov. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Pittsburgh, PA.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).

The Bills vs. Steelers Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bills	-3.5 -115	47.5 -110	-210
Steelers	+3.5 -105	47.5 -110	170

Bills vs. Steelers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 65.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Steelers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 50.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 70% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Kenneth Gainwell has hit the Longest Rush Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.40 Units / 46% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.65 Units / 64% ROI)
Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 54% ROI)
James Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in their last 9 games at home (+9.35 Units / 75% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 83% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.55 Units / 48% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.20 Units / 28% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.27 Units / 19% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.93 Units / 29% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 45% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.95 Units / 18% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 5-6 (-1.6 Units / -13.28% ROI).

Bills are 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.8 Units / -13.21% ROI
Bills are 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
Bills are 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 5-6 (-1.5 Units / -12.61% ROI).

Steelers are 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -3.43% ROI
Steelers are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Steelers are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers defense have missed 93 tackles this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Steelers defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (7 completions/19 attempts) on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Steelers defense have allowed -0.16 epa per play against play action passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Steelers defense has forced 15 fumbles this season — most in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Steelers ran successful plays on 80% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 12 — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Steelers have faced a blitz 60 times this season — fewest in NFL.

The Steelers have targeted WRs 41% of the time (137 Pass Attempts/338 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 56%.

The Steelers have converted late downs on just 7 of 165 plays (4%) with 7-10 yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers