Bills vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 15

BetMGM Betting Dec 13, 2025, 11:20 AM

min read

A general view of Gillette Stadium during the second half an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Washington Commanders on Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

(AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

The Bills are -1 point favorites vs the Patriots
Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (9-4-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (11-2-0) on Dec. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-105).

The Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Patriots vs Bills & all NFL games with BetMGM

Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bills	-1 -105	49.5 -110	-115
Patriots	+1 -115	49.5 -110	-105

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 51.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 51.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Patriots vs Bills and all NFL games with BetMGM

Get a New Player Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 69% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
James Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.63 Units / 61% ROI)
Demario Douglas has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)
Mack Hollins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+11.15 Units / 30% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.27 Units / 19% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.93 Units / 29% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.55 Units / 28% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+16.25 Units / 50% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 26% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.15 Units / 41% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 6-7 (-1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI).

Bills are 9-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -7.86% ROI
Bills are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Bills are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 9-4 (+4.6 Units / 32.51% ROI).

Patriots are 11-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.45 Units / 34.8% ROI
Patriots are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
Patriots are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

Only 8% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Patriots defense have allowed -1.48 epa per play on contested throws since Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.17.

Only 8% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 28% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Patriots have run successful plays on 89% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 59% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 55% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Patriots have started 9 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots