- The Bills are -6.5 point favorites vs the Jets
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (1-0-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (0-1-0) on Sep. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).
The Bills vs. Jets Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -6.5 -115 | 46 -110 | -325 |
| Jets | ++6.5 -105 | 46 -110 | 260 |
Bills vs. Jets Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 76.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Jets Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jets will cover the spread with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 away games (+6.15 Units / 84% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Breece Hall has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Braelon Allen has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Braelon Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Braelon Allen has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.25 Units / 40% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.54 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Team Total Over in their last 7 away games (+7.15 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+6.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Jets Best Bets:
- The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.65 Units / 66% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Bills are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 100% ROI
- Bills are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Bills are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / ROI
Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Jets are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Jets are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Jets are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets
The Bills were undefeated (8-0) at home last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .524.
The Bills are 16-1 (.941) at home since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .541.
The Bills were 3-1 (.750) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .335.
The Bills were 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .571.
New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Jets were 1-6 (.143) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 7th-worst in NFL. The Bills intercepted 16 passes last season — T-5th-most in NFL.
The Jets are winless (0-11) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
The Jets were winless (0-4) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .318.
The Jets were winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .335.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Jets RBs averaged 6.8 targets per game last season — 5th-highest in NFL. The Bills allowed 5.4 receptions per game to RBs last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Jets RBs had 5 receiving touchdowns last season — T-5th-most in NFL. The Bills allowed 6 receiving touchdowns to RBs last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Jets rushed the ball on 62.9% of plays from scrimmage last week — highest in NFL. The Bills allowed 8.2 yards per carry last week — worst in NFL.
The Bills scored on 49.4% of their drives last season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Jets defense allowed scores on 43.6% of opponent drives last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
The Bills ran 17.9% offensive plays in the red zone last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Jets allowed their opponent to run 17.4% of plays in the red zone last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
Bills RBs had 16 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — T-3rd-most in NFL. The Jets allowed 22 rushing TDs last season — T-4th-most in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills averaged 0.26 epa per play on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bills had 7 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 1 — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Bills converted late downs on 25 of 183 plays (14%) with 4-6 yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Bills rushed for 32 TDs last season — most in NFL.
New York Jets Offense: Important Stats
The Jets ran the ball on 28% of plays (36 carries/131 plays) in the red zone last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.
The Jets ran successful plays on 82% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Jets threw the ball 69% of the time (90 Pass Attempts/131 plays) in the red zone last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Jets averaged -0.24 epa per play on first read passes in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.24.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed 10.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (447 yards / 43 touches) in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.9.
The Bills defense allowed rushes of 10+ yards on 10 of 29 carries (34%) in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 24% of rush attempts with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 45.7 first read passes (60 Pass Attempts) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 96.8.
New York Jets Defense: Important Stats
The Jets defense allowed 4 TD passes in Week 1 — most in NFL.
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 22% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 26% of pass attempts from their own territory in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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