Bills vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:52 AM

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A Miami Dolphins football helmet sits on the grass during an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

(AP Photo/Doug Murray)

The Bills are -9.5 point favorites vs the Dolphins
Total (Over/Under): 50 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (6-2-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (2-7-0) on Nov. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).

The Bills vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bills	-9.5 -110	50 -110	-500
Dolphins	+9.5 -110	50 -110	375

Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 79.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 59.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.60 Units / 54% ROI)
James Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)
Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.56 Units / 30% ROI)
Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)
Devon Achane has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)
Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 24% ROI)
Jaylen Waddle has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.37 Units / 46% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.02 Units / 29% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 59% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.85 Units / 51% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.85 Units / 24% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 29% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 61% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.57% ROI).

Bills are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.44% ROI
Bills are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bills are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 4-5 (-1.5 Units / -15% ROI).

Dolphins are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -37.13% ROI
Dolphins are 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 38.38% ROI
Dolphins are 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -46.46% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins defense have allowed 7.0 yards per play on motion plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Dolphins defense has allowed 20+ yard rushes 11 times this season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins defense has allowed just 104.2 receiving yards per game (938/9) to WRs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 145.5.

The Dolphins defense have allowed just 3.6 yards per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bills are 6-1 (.857) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Dolphins have turned the ball over 15 times this season — most in NFL.

The Bills are undefeated (5-0) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .493.

The Bills are 4-1 (.800) after a win this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .514.

The Bills are 6-1 (.857) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .626.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins