Bills vs Browns Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

BetMGM Betting Dec 19, 2025, 6:00 PM

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FILE - Huntington Bank Field during an NFL football game between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants, Sept. 22, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Kirk Irwin, File)

(AP Photo/Kirk Irwin, File)

The Bills are -10 point favorites vs the Browns
Total (Over/Under): 42 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (10-4-0) visit Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns (3-11-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Cleveland, OH.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).

The Bills vs. Browns Over/Under is 42 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Bills vs. Browns Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 78.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bills vs Browns Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 52.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 69% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 41% ROI)
Dawson Knox has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 68% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today

Harold Fannin Jr. has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 65% ROI)
Quinshon Judkins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 68% ROI)
Cedric Tillman has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 51% ROI)
Jerome Ford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
Harold Fannin Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+11.15 Units / 30% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.27 Units / 24% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 30% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.98 Units / 30% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+2.40 Units / 9% ROI)

Browns Best Bets:

The Cleveland Browns have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+7.05 Units / 76% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+6.75 Units / 72% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.65 Units / 45% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 40% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 7-7 (-0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Bills are 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -5.63% ROI
Bills are 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bills are 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / ROI

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 5-9 (-4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI).

Browns are 3-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.45 Units / -41.21% ROI
Browns are 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
Browns are 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 19% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 7% of plays with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Browns defense has not allowed a third down conversion with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Browns defense has allowed successful plays on 7% of pass attempts with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Browns have run successful plays on 33% of plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Browns ran successful plays on 6% of plays in the 1st half in Week 15 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Browns have run successful plays on 34% of plays in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Browns are averaging 8.8 drives per TD in the 2nd half this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.2.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns