- The Bears are -2.5 point favorites vs the Bills
- Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Buffalo Bills (0-1-0) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (0-0-1) on Aug. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Chicago, IL, IL.
The – are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at ().
The Bills vs. Bears Over/Under is total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | |||
| Bears |
Bills vs. Bears Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 79.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Bears Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 75.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Caleb Williams has hit the Interceptions Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 67% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.54 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 33% ROI)
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last NFL season, the Bills were ( Units / ROI).
- Bills are 15-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 17.09% ROI
- Bills are 12-7 when betting the Over for +4.15 Units / 18.74% ROI
- Bills are 7-12 when betting the Under for -6.2 Units / ROI
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last NFL season, the Bears were ( Units / ROI).
- Bears are 5-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -29.26% ROI
- Bears are 7-10 when betting the Over for -4 Units / -21.39% ROI
- Bears are 10-7 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / 12.3% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Bills were undefeated (4-0) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Bills are 15-1 (.938) at home since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .541.
The Bills were 4-1 (.800) vs top 10 run defenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .300.
The Bills were 3-1 (.750) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .335.
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Bears were winless (0-7) when not forcing a fumble last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .418.
The Bears were 1-7 (.125) on the road last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.
The Bears were winless (0-11) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .229.
The Bears were 3-6 (.333) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 32.3% of pass attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills had pressured opposing QBs on 31.2% of passing plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Bears averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed just 3.9 yards per carry in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Bears threw the ball 54.1% of the time in the red zone last season — 4th-highest in NFL. The Bills allowed 22 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone last season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
The Bills scored on 50.6% of their drives in the first half last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bears defense allowed scores on 48.9% of opponent drives in the first half last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Bills scored on 40.5% of their drives in the first quarter last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Bears defense allowed scores on 41.7% of opponent drives in the first quarter last season — worst in NFL.
The Bills ran 17.9% offensive plays in the red zone last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Bears allowed their opponent to run 17.0% of plays in the red zone last season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills averaged 0.26 epa per play on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bills started 25 drives inside opposing territory last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Bills averaged 7.1 yards per play on motion plays last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
The Bills did not convert a late down on 40 plays (0%) in close and late situations last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged just 3.1 yards per play on first drive of the game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Bears averaged 0.25 epa per play on contested throws last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Bears ran 2% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Bears averaged -0.33 epa per play on first drive of the game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 2 of 79 attempts (3%) on 3rd and long last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Bills defense allowed a late down conversion rate of 13% when opponents had 4-6 yards to go last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Bills defense allowed first downs on 47% of pass attempts on 3rd down last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense has allowed scores on 19% of opponent drives (16/84) in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense allowed a passer rating of 158.3 with a light rush (6 Pass Attempts) last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 92.6.
The Bears defense allowed 13.7 yards per reception (1,755 yards/128 catches) on 1st down last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 11.0.
The Bears defense allowed 9.3 yards per play against play action passes last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.5.
The Bears defense allowed 14.8 yards per play with a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.9.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
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- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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