Bengals vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

BetMGM Betting Dec 19, 2025, 6:00 PM

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A Miami Dolphins football helmet sits on the grass during an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

(AP Photo/Doug Murray)

The Dolphins are +4.5 point favorites vs the Bengals
Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (6-8-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +4.5 (-110).

The Bengals vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Bengals vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 50.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bengals vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 50.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bengals players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

Noah Fant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 60% ROI)
Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 29% ROI)
Joe Burrow has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Tee Higgins has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Noah Fant has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.65 Units / 51% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 61% ROI)
Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 56% ROI)
Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Devon Achane has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Ollie Gordon II has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.10 Units / 84% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.23 Units / 19% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 9 away games (+2.75 Units / 27% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+1.85 Units / 20% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+1.80 Units / 8% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 42% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 30% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.38 Units / 20% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+5.10 Units / 50% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals are 6-8 (-2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI).

Bengals are 4-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -24.15% ROI
Bengals are 8-6 when betting the Over for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI
Bengals are 6-8 when betting the Under for -2.8 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 7-7 (-0.7 Units / -4.5% ROI).

Dolphins are 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 9.74% ROI
Dolphins are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 9.74% ROI
Dolphins are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -17.53% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Bengals did not score on any of their 9 drives in Week 15 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Bengals have thrown the ball 62% of the time (532 Pass Attempts/856 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

27 of the Bengals offense’s 33 (82%) TDs have come through the air this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 20% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28%.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Dolphins have averaged -0.93 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

6% of the Dolphins offense’s first downs (1 of 16) came on the ground in Week 15 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.76 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.46.

The Dolphins ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 15 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins