Bengals vs Broncos Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

Kick off for the 2024 NFL season at Empower Field at Mile High during the Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024 in Denver. (AP Photo/Bart Young)
(AP Photo/Bart Young)
  • The Broncos are -7.5 point favorites vs the Bengals
  • Total (Over/Under): 44 points
  • Watch this game on ABC

The Cincinnati Bengals (2-1-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (1-2-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Denver, CO.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-105).

The Bengals vs. Broncos Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bengals+7.5 -11544 -110300
Broncos -7.5 -10544 -110-375

Bengals vs. Broncos Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 75.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bengals vs Broncos Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 72.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bengals players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

  • Noah Fant has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.65 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Andrei Iosivas has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Evan McPherson has hit the Field Goals Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Noah Fant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Mike Gesicki has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Evan Engram has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Courtland Sutton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • J.K. Dobbins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Bo Nix has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 87% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.75 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+3.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+7.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have covered the 2H Spread in their last 6 games at home (+6.14 Units / 95% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.14 Units / 51% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Bengals are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 19.61% ROI
  • Bengals are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Bengals are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 0-3 (-3.2 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Broncos are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -18.25% ROI
  • Broncos are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Broncos are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Bengals have gone three and out on 80% of their drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bengals have averaged -0.12 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Bengals committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Broncos ran successful plays on 23% of plays in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 10% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos ran successful plays on 23% of plays in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 10% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Bengals have gone three and out on 80% of their drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bengals have averaged -0.12 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Bengals committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats

The Bengals have gone three and out on 80% of their drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bengals have averaged -0.12 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Bengals committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats

The Broncos ran successful plays on 23% of plays in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 10% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats

The Bengals have gone three and out on 80% of their drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bengals have averaged -0.12 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Bengals have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Bengals committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats

The Broncos ran successful plays on 23% of plays in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 1st half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 10% of pass attempts in the 2nd half in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Broncos ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 1st quarter in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.