Bengals vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Dec 07, 2025, 9:49 AM

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A Buffalo Bills helmet sits on the turf next to a couple of footballs prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

The Bills are -5.5 point favorites vs the Bengals
Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-8-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (8-4-0) on Dec. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Bengals vs. Bills Over/Under is 52.5 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bengals	+5.5 -110	52.5 -110	200
Bills	-5.5 -110	52.5 -110	-250

Bengals vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 70.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bengals vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 52.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bengals players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
Noah Fant has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
Noah Fant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Tee Higgins has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.20 Units / 63% ROI)
Andrei Iosivas has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.95 Units / 43% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dalton Kincaid has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 69% ROI)
Keon Coleman has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Ty Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
James Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.75 Units / 41% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.28 Units / 19% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.45 Units / 25% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.27 Units / 19% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.93 Units / 29% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.85 Units / 32% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals are 5-7 (-2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI).

Bengals are 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -14.42% ROI
Bengals are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Bengals are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 6-6 (-0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Bills are 8-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -10.53% ROI
Bills are 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Bills are 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Bills started 25 drives inside opposing territory last season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Bills averaged 0.26 epa per play on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Bills did not convert a late down on 40 plays (0%) in close and late situations last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The Bills converted late downs on 25 of 183 plays (14%) with 4-6 yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were winless (0-4) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .318.

The Bengals were 7-1 (.875) vs bottom 10 offenses last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .729.

The Bengals were 2-5 (.286) when allowing 250 or more passing yards last season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .415.

The Bengals were 6-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .601.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills