- The Bears are a 1.5-point home underdog against the Vikings.
- The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 games against NFC opponents.
- My Bears vs. Vikings prediction is the Chicago Bears moneyline (+100).
The Ben Johnson era begins in Chicago with a primetime showcase against the Vikings.Â
Chicago struggled in Caleb Williams’ first season, notching only five wins. Worth noting, however, is that the Bears ran unlucky last season and finished two wins under expected.Â
The Vikings throttled expectations in 2024. Minnesota notched 14 wins, including a pair over Chicago, easily clearing its preseason win total (6.5).Â
Bet on Bears vs. Vikings and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Bears vs Vikings: NFL Week 1 Odds, MNF
- Date: Monday, September 8
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)
Bears vs Vikings Prediction
[Writer’s Note: this analysis was written when oddsmakers listed the Bears as a 1.5-point favorite. Currently, prices list Chicago as a slight home underdog.]
Based on the historical success of bad home underdogs in Week 1 and Chicago’s bad luck against Minnesota, my Bears vs. Vikings prediction is the Bears Moneyline (-115).Â
No statistical argument exists in favor of the Bears winning outright. Essentially, bettors backing the Bears are banking on some positive regression and the historical precedent.Â
Chicago fell 30-12 in the last meeting against Minnesota. However, that game qualified as Chicago’s third straight road game, a historically difficult spot.Â
At home against the Vikings, the Bears fell 30-27 in overtime. That marked one of five wins by three or fewer points for Minnesota last season.Â
While J.J. McCarthy possesses ample talent around him, it remains his first NFL road start off a horrific injury prior to the 2024 season.Â
That, along with the historical precedent of bad favorites early, essentially explains the line.Â
Since 2004, 105 teams have closed a home favorite in Week 1 a year after missing the postseason. Those teams are 47-54-4 ATS.Â
However, 25 of those teams played a team that reached the postseason the prior season. Those 25 teams are 16-8-1 ATS, covering the spread by 4.38 points per game.Â
Plus, it’s difficult to ignore the fact Williams excelled as a favorite last season. Albeit in a five-game sample, the former first overall pick finished 4-1 ATS as a favorite.Â
From an offseason strategy standpoint, I like what the Bears have done more than Minnesota.Â
Chicago addressed its biggest issue (interior offensive line) while signing Grady Jarrett and Dayo Odeyingbo along the defensive line.Â
For those reasons, it’s the Bears or nothing for me in the MNF opener.Â
Betting Bears vs Vikings: NFL Public Betting
Data is reflective as of Monday, September 8.
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings (-1.5) | 52% | 40% | 39% | 40% |
| Bears (+1.5) | 48% | 60% | 61% | 60% |
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