- The Bears are a 1.5-point home favorite against the Packers.
- The Packers have won 14 of their last 15 games at Soldier Field.
- My Bears vs Packers prediction is the Chicago Bears Moneyline (+105).
The Bears will go for a second straight home win on Saturday as they host the Green Bay Packers.Â
Chicago dispatched Cleveland 31-3 on Sunday, easily covering the spread as a 7.5-point favorite. Now, Ben Johnson’s team will try to avenge a 28-21 loss to the Packers two weeks ago.Â
Green Bay fell 34-26 against the Broncos on Sunday. The defense also lost Micah Parsons to a torn ACL in the process, but the team remains 4-0 in the NFC North this season.Â
Bet on Bears vs. Packers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Bears vs. Packers: NFL Week 16 Odds
Bears vs. Packers Prediction
Based on Green Bay’s mounting injuries and the Bears’ advantage on the ground, my Bears vs Packers prediction is the Chicago Bears Moneyline (+105).Â
There are two causes for concern against Green Bay.Â
First, a number of key players could miss this game. Micah Parsons definitely won’t play, kneecapping a pass rush that hasn’t looked good without him.Â
Christian Watson also could miss the game, while right tackle Zach Tom also sustained an injury at Denver. This season, Tom ranks fifth in the entire NFL in pass-block win rate, per ESPN.Â
It might not matter against the Bears. Chicago remains a better pass defense – 20th in DVOA vs. 28th in rush defense – and allowed 86 yards and a touchdown to Josh Jacobs.Â
That being said, I can’t ignore the matchup advantage for the Bears offense.Â
Chicago ranks fourth in rush offense DVOA, while Green Bay ranks 14th in the corresponding defensive category.Â
In Week 14, Green Bay won at home in spite of its rush defense. This season, Green Bay owns a 3-2-1 record when the defense allows over 100 rushing yards compared to 6-2 otherwise.Â
This season, the Bears have rushed for over 100 yards as a team in all but four games. Since the bye week, they’ve rushed for over 96 yards in every game.Â
Red zone deficiencies also plagued Chicago in the last meeting. Chicago produced four red zone trips at Lambeau Field, converting only two into touchdowns.Â
If there’s a cause for concern with the Bears, it’s two-fold. First is that bettors are lining up to back the Bears on Saturday to the tune of 66% of bets placed.Â
Additionally, the Bears have not closed as home underdogs since Week 1. But Green Bay’s injuries are simply too much to overcome in my estimation.Â
Betting Bears vs. Packers: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Packers (+1.5) | 18% | 11% |
| Bears (-1.5) | 82% | 89% |
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