Bears vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders fans look on before an NFL football game between the Raiders and the Cleveland Browns Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)
(AP Photo/David Becker)
  • The Bears are -1 point favorites vs the Raiders
  • Total (Over/Under): 48 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Chicago Bears (1-2-0) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (1-2-0) on Sep. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Las Vegas, NV.

The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-102).

The Bears vs. Raiders Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

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Bears vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bears-1 -10248 -110-110
Raiders +1 -11848 -110-110

Bears vs. Raiders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 70.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bears vs Raiders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 70.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

  • Caleb Williams has hit the Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Cairo Santos has hit the Field Goals Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Roschon Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Caleb Williams has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Geno Smith has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Geno Smith has hit the TD Passes Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Daniel Carlson has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.43 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.45 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+2.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.65 Units / 8% ROI)

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Bears are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -33.87% ROI
  • Bears are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Bears are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 1-2 (-1.3 Units / -38.24% ROI).

  • Raiders are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -26.67% ROI
  • Raiders are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Raiders are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Bears have averaged just 3.8 yards per play on first drive of the game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Bears have converted late downs on 8 of 39 plays (20%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Bears have averaged 7.3 yards per play in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Bears have averaged -0.16 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Raiders have run successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Raiders have 15 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders have averaged just -0.1 yards per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.8.

The Raiders have run 30% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have run successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Raiders have 15 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders have averaged just -0.1 yards per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.8.

The Raiders have run 30% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Bears have averaged just 3.8 yards per play on first drive of the game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Bears have converted late downs on 8 of 39 plays (20%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Bears have averaged 7.3 yards per play in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Bears have averaged -0.16 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats

The Bears have averaged just 3.8 yards per play on first drive of the game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Bears have converted late downs on 8 of 39 plays (20%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Bears have averaged 7.3 yards per play in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Bears have averaged -0.16 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats

The Raiders have run successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Raiders have 15 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders have averaged just -0.1 yards per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.8.

The Raiders have run 30% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats

The Bears have averaged just 3.8 yards per play on first drive of the game since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Bears have converted late downs on 8 of 39 plays (20%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Bears have averaged 7.3 yards per play in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Bears have averaged -0.16 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats

The Raiders have run successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Raiders have 15 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders have averaged just -0.1 yards per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.8.

The Raiders have run 30% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.