- The Chiefs are -3 point favorites vs the Bears
- Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
- Watch this game on
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The Chicago Bears (1-0-1) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (0-2-0) on Aug. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Bears vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.
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Bears vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bears | +3 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +145 |
| Chiefs | -3 -105 | 39.5 -110 | -175 |
Bears vs. Chiefs Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 71.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bears vs Chiefs Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 71.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
- Caleb Williams has hit the Interceptions Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in his last 10 games (+10.80 Units / 87% ROI)
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Bears were winless (0-7) when not forcing a fumble last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .418.
The Bears were 1-7 (.125) on the road last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.
The Bears were winless (0-11) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .229.
The Bears were 3-6 (.333) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Chiefs were 9-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-best in NFL. The Seahawks allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 8 s last season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs were 5-1 (.833) when not forcing a turnover last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .292.
The Chiefs were undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .566.
The Chiefs were 3-1 (.750) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .335.
Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were successful on 55.5% of plays they ran on play action passes last season — 5th-best in NFL. The Seahawks allowed a success rate of 56.7% on play action passes last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs were 9-0 (1.000) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-best in NFL. The Seahawks allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 8 s last season — 5th-highest in NFL.
Chiefs RBs rushed for 10 or more yards on just 5.5% of 73 carries in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-2nd-worst in NFL. The Seahawks allowed 10+ yards on just 3.8% of carries to RBs in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Bears allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 32.3% of pass attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills had pressured opposing QBs on 31.2% of passing plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Bears averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Bills allowed just 3.9 yards per carry in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Bears threw the ball 54.1% of the time in the red zone last season — 4th-highest in NFL. The Bills allowed 22 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone last season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged just 3.1 yards per play on first drive of the game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Bears averaged 0.25 epa per play on contested throws last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Bears ran 2% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
The Bears averaged -0.33 epa per play on first drive of the game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 48% last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.69 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.47.
The Chiefs averaged -0.64 epa per play against tight coverage last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense allowed a passer rating of 158.3 with a light rush (6 Pass Attempts) last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 92.6.
The Bears defense allowed 13.7 yards per reception (1,755 yards/128 catches) on 1st down last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 11.0.
The Bears defense allowed 9.3 yards per play against play action passes last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.5.
The Bears defense allowed 14.8 yards per play with a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.9.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts from their own territory in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Chiefs defense allowed just 4.5 yards per play in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.
The Chiefs defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 6 of 155 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 10%.
The Chiefs defense allowed 93.7 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 126.8.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
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- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
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