A Case for the Dallas Cowboys to Win the NFC East

Only a few weeks ago, it looked as if the Eagles would cruise to a second straight NFC East title. 

But as the NFL season enters Week 14, the division race is suddenly rife with potential intrigue. 

Current NFL odds rate the Eagles as a favorite to win the division. Dallas, which trails Philadelphia by a game in the loss column, is to win the NFC East. 

Purely by looking at the odds, it’s still likely Philadelphia retains its spot atop the division. 

However, I predict a case exists where Dallas wins the division more frequently than its 13% implied probability suggests. 

Let’s dive into the analysis along with my NFC East prediction. 

NFC East Prediction: A Case for Dallas to Win the NFC East

Most of this belief begins with my Week 14 predictions. Dallas, as noted in my NFL Week 14 Expert Picks, is a live underdog to win outright in Detroit. 

Meanwhile, the Eagles travel to face the Chargers. It’s likely Lane Johnson misses that game. Since losing Johnson, Philadelphia has dropped two straight games. 

If Dallas wins and Philadelphia loses, these odds shorten drastically. From there, Philadelphia plays a harder schedule than the records might suggest. 

The Eagles should take care of business against the Raiders. But then they close the season with two games against Washington, with a trip to Buffalo sandwiched in between. 

By that point, Jayden Daniels is probably healthy for a Washington team that has run unlucky this year. Entering Week 14, the Commanders are 3-9 with a 4.5-7.5 expected record. 

If we assume the Eagles and Commanders split those games, it leaves Philadelphia at 3-3 in the division. 

Dallas, with a win at either Washington or New York, would finish at 4-2 in the division. 

In addition to Detroit, Dallas finishes its non-division schedule with home games against the Chargers and Vikings. 

Looking ahead, Dallas possesses a strong enough offense to threaten both defenses. This season, the Cowboys are 5-0-1 (W-L-T) when scoring at least 30 points. 

Based on current defensive DVOA ratings, the Cowboys play the 20th-hardest set of defenses in their final five games. 

Dallas gets the Vikings on extended rest: do you trust J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer to keep up? Then they face a Chargers defense that has struggled against good offenses. 

When Los Angeles last played an offense holding a 10% DVOA percentage or higher, they lost 38-24 to the Colts. 

If Dallas closes the season 4-1, it leaves Brian Schottenheimer’s team at 10-5-1. Philadelphia, with losses at Los Angeles, Buffalo and once to Washington, would finish at 10-7. 

Given Philadelphia is a negative regression candidate – eight wins off 6.6 expected – I predict Dallas could steal the division title.