A Case for the Carolina Panthers to Win the NFC South

One look at the current NFC South odds suggests the division is done and dusted. 

Oddsmakers price the Buccaneers at -1200 to win the division. That price implies a 92.3% implied probability to keep the division lead. 

The Panthers, Falcons and Saints are all priced at +1000 or higher. 

But in reality, the division race is closer than one might perceive. Both Tampa Bay and Carolina – the presumed challenger – have four division games left. 

That includes both head-to-head meetings in Week 16 at Carolina and Week 18 in Tampa Bay. 

With that in mind, could Carolina come back and win the division? Below, I’ve outlined a case for the Panthers based on current NFL odds. 

NFC South Prediction: A Case for the Panthers to Win

The case for Carolina begins with the case against Tampa Bay. 

If not this season, Tampa Bay could see a ton of negative regression into next year. The Bucs have built success this season off a strong offense – 11th in points per game. 

However, they’ve achieved that feat ranking 24th in red zone opportunities per game. The team also runs a relatively unbalanced offense: 15th in pass DVOA vs. 25th in rush DVOA. 

Here’s the insane stat. Entering Week 11, only one current division leader (Denver) owns a worse offensive success rate than Tampa Bay.

Additionally, they’ve run wildly lucky based on their current point differential. 

Tampa Bay’s 6-3 record comes against a 4.8-4.2 expected win-loss mark. Four of those six wins have come by three or fewer points. 

Over their next two games, Tampa Bay travels to face Buffalo and the Los Angeles Rams. Both rank amongst the Super Bowl odds favorites. 

Assuming odds hold and Tampa Bay drops both games, it leaves the door open for Carolina’s odds to shorten. 

Carolina plays Atlanta this week and San Francisco the next. I generally like both matchups for Dave Canales’ team, as both defenses struggle against the run. 

In fact, I predicted a Carolina cover as part of my NFL Week 11 Expert Picks. 

The Panthers rank 13th in offensive success rate on plays excluding turnovers, including 13th on first and second down. 

That said, what will decide the division is the remaining division games. 

Am I worried about Carolina’s viability in New Orleans? Of course. 

What gives me hope is that it might not matter – Tampa stole lucky wins at Atlanta and New Orleans. 

The Bucs beat Atlanta in Week 1 by three points. That came despite – and I swear this part is true – running two plays from the Falcons’ red zone. 

Then came a 23-3 win over New Orleans. Surely the Bucs dominated, right? Wrong. 

Tampa Bay won the game despite running four plays from the Saints’ red zone. The Bucs kicked three 50+ yard field goals and scored a defensive touchdown. 

Plus, the best feature of Tampa Bay’s team is the rush defense. As of this writing, the Bucs rank fourth in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

But that has come while playing only three games against teams 15th or better in rush offense DVOA. Those games: three-point win over Atlanta, two-point win over the Jets, 15-point loss at Detroit. 

Over Tampa Bay’s final eight games, they play five against current top-13 units, including four against current top-10 units. 

If regression hits the rush department and explosive touchdowns dry up, a path exists for Tampa Bay to fall from the top spot.