49ers vs. Panthers: NFL Week 12 Odds, Prediction

The 49ers try to begin a winning streak on MNF against the upstart Panthers. 

Buoyed by the return of Brock Purdy, San Francisco dropped 44 on the Cardinals in Week 11. Now, Kyle Shanahan’s team tries for a second straight win for the first time since Week 2. 

Carolina picked up a 30-27 overtime win against the Falcons on Sunday. Paired with Tampa Bay’s loss at Buffalo, Carolina moved within a half-game of the NFC South lead. 

Bet on 49ers vs. Panthers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

49ers vs. Panthers: NFL Week 12 Odds

49ers vs. Panthers Prediction

Based on Carolina’s expected defensive regression and San Francisco’s weak defensive record, my 49ers vs Panthers prediction is the Total Over 47.5 Points (-110). 

How this total isn’t sitting somewhere in the 50s is beyond me. 

Carolina’s defense offers no resistance. The Panthers rank 23rd in defensive DVOA, having played the 20th-hardest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Only four times this season has Carolina played an offense 10th or better in DVOA. The resulting points outputs: 42, 27, 40 and 13. 

The last benchmark – at Green Bay – might look encouraging. However, the Packers finished 1-for-5 in the red zone at home. 

On Monday, Carolina faces a 49ers offense ranked sixth in DVOA, having faced the second-hardest schedule of defenses. 

Since Week 9, San Francisco ranks second in EPA per play and first in offensive success rate. 

All of that said, the 49ers defense cannot be trusted either. 

Since Fred Warner sustained his injury, San Francisco has struggled to limit its opponents. 

Dating back to Week 7, Robert Saleh’s defense ranks 28th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. 

Even if you remove the Rams game from consideration, San Francisco still allowed 20.5 points to Atlanta, Houston, New York (N) and Arizona. Hardly the best offenses in the league. 

Last week, only Buffalo outpaced Arizona in yards per play. With Carolina, at least I know you’re getting an offense that runs the ball well. 

It should also not go ignored that Carolina scored 30 points against a very good Falcons defense. 

They also achieved that feat while finishing 2-for-6 in red zone touchdown conversions. 

Expect San Francisco to contribute the lion’s share of scoring here. However, Carolina should contribute to this total as well. Accordingly, I predict points flow on MNF. 

Betting 49ers vs. Panthers: NFL Public Betting