49ers vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 2

A New Orleans Saints helmet sits on the turf prior to an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Monday, Sep. 18, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)
(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)
  • The 49ers are -4.5 point favorites vs the Saints
  • Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The San Francisco 49ers (1-0-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (0-1-0) on Sep. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in New Orleans, LA.

The 49ers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The 49ers vs. Saints Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.

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49ers vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
49ers-4.5 -11042.5 -110-225
Saints +4.5 -11042.5 -110185

49ers vs. Saints Prediction

The winning team model predicts the 49ers will win this game with 68.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

49ers vs Saints Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the 49ers will cover the spread with 60.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for 49ers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best 49ers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Demarcus Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.55 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jauan Jennings has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Brock Purdy has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Brock Purdy has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Foster Moreau has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.55 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Kevin Austin Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.65 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.35 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Francisco 49ers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+4.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.90 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.78 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.20 Units / 19% ROI)

49ers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the 49ers are 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • 49ers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 74.07% ROI
  • 49ers are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • 49ers are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Saints are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Saints are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
  • Saints are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

San Francisco 49ers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The 49ers were winless (0-8) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .435.

The 49ers were winless (0-4) when passing for less than 200 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The 49ers were winless (0-9) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .354.

The 49ers are winless (0-6) when passing for less than 200 yards since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the San Francisco 49ers

The Saints were winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .434.

The Saints were winless (0-4) when passing for less than 200 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Saints were winless (0-10) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .152.

The Saints were winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .368.

Additional Matchup Notes for San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints

Saints WRs had just 107.8 receiving yards per game last season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The 49ers averaged just 126.9 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs last season — best in NFL.

The Saints rushed the ball on 57.4% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone last season — 5th-highest in NFL. The 49ers have allowed 19 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone last season — 4th-most in NFL.

The Saints threw for just 6.1 yards per attempt out of the shotgun last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The 49ers allowed just 6.1 yards per dropback against the shotgun last season — T-5th-best in NFL.

The 49ers averaged 388 yards from scrimmage per game (6,587 YFS / 17 G) last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Saints allowed an average of 394.1 yards from scrimmage per game (6,699/17) last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The 49ers averaged 4.9 yards per carry last season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Saints allowed 5.1 yards per carry last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The 49ers had an average drive start position from the 26.6 yard line last season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Saints allowed an average drive start position from the 25.4 yard line last season — 2nd-best in NFL.

San Francisco 49ers Offense: Important Stats

The 49ers have averaged 11.5 yards per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9.3.

The 49ers averaged 11.3 yards per play against open coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9.3.

The 49ers went three and out on 7% of their drives in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The 49ers ran successful plays on 67% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 1 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints converted first downs on just 4 of 45 plays (9%) when their QB was scrambling last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Saints targeted RBs 24% of the time (131 Pass Attempts/551 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Saints ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Saints converted late downs on just 11 of 280 plays (4%) with 7-10 yards to go last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

San Francisco 49ers Defense: Important Stats

The 49ers defense have allowed just 3.9 yards per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.

The 49ers defense allowed a Completion Pct of just 28% (19 completions/69 attempts) when they pressured the QB last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The 49ers defense allowed successful plays on 52% of pass attempts in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The 49ers defense allowed just 7.0 yards per play first read passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 8.0.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense allowed 6.6 yards per play in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 60% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Saints defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (23 completions/53 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.