2 NFL Player Props for TNF: Texans vs Bills

A pivotal contest for the AFC Playoff Picture kicks off Week 12: Texans vs Bills. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Texans vs Bills Prediction: Player Props

Woody Marks Longest Rush Attempt Over 13.5 Yards (-118)

This prediction is equal parts a support of Marks as it is a fade of Buffalo’s horrendous rush defense. 

Buffalo ranks 30th in rush defense DVOA and rush EPA per play. Even more concerning, Buffalo ranks 32nd in the rate of runs that go over 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. 

Last week should have given Buffalo a reprieve. The defense played a Buccaneers offense that ranked 24th in rush EPA per play from Weeks 1-10 (-0.111). 

Then Tampa Bay produced a +0.184 rush EPA per play against Buffalo. That should illustrate how bad this unit plays. 

Through 10 games, Buffalo has allowed at least one back to clear this number in all but three games. Two of those failures came via the hook. 

Houston ranks 28th in rush offense DVOA, but Marks has shown life reeling off explosive runs. 

While he has cleared this number only three times, two of those successes came in the last four games. 

Those successes came against Jacksonville and San Francisco, both of which outrank Buffalo in rush defense DVOA. 

Given those factors, I predict Marks clears this benchmark for the third time in five games. 

Josh Allen Under 19.5 Passing Completions (-105)

Time to step in front of the mighty Allen, who has cleared this number in two of his last three. 

However, he’s playing an elite Houston pass defense with a banged-up receiving group. That’s a recipe for disaster against his hardest opponent by pass defense DVOA ALL YEAR. 

Allen has played only two defenses ranking 10th or better in that category this season. Last week, he stayed under this number by the hook against Tampa Bay (8th). 

In a previous primetime showcase, the defending MVP notched only 15 completions against Atlanta (10th). 

Irrespective of opponent ranking, Allen has cleared this number five times in 10 games. 

Defensively, Houston ranks second in dropback success rate. They’ve also achieved that feat against a difficult set of offenses. 

Houston has played all three of the top-3 in pass offense DVOA. 

Matthew Stafford cleared this figure against Houston, but Sam Darnold and Mac Jones stayed under this figure. By pass offense DVOA, Buffalo ranks 10th at 30.4%. 

There’s a 12% gap between Buffalo and third-place San Francisco. 

Only Stafford, Baker Mayfield and Cam Ward have cleared this figure against Houston. Lastly, if you assume a positive script for Buffalo, it likely means more James Cook rather than Allen. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Texans vs Bills