2 NFL Player Props for TNF: Patriots vs Jets

Patriots vs Jets begins the Week 11 NFL slate as New England tries to extend its AFC East lead. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Patriots vs Jets Prediction: Player Props

Stefon Diggs Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-120)

Diggs has only cleared this number three times this season. However, he receives a favorable matchup against a man-heavy Jets defense. 

What’s interesting about New York’s pass defense: it’s boom or bust. On plays excluding turnovers, the Jets rank fourth in dropback success rate vs. 18th in EPA per play. 

New York runs man coverage at the league’s eight-highest rate (31.7%). Diggs has amassed 206 yards vs. man this season, good for the league in New England and eighth in the NFL. 

Oddly, his three successes have come against more zone-heavy schemes. But the Jets have struggled to limit explosives against opposing wide receivers. 

Opposing quarterbacks completed their longest completion to a wide receiver in all but one game against the Jets this year. 

A few of those instances came against primarily slot receivers, where Diggs usually operates. Here are some outputs by receivers that line up in the slot over 30% of the time:

• Calvin Austin III: 30-yard reception
• Xavier Legette: 33-yard reception
• Ryan Flournoy: 46-yard reception
• Emeka Egbuka: 30-yard reception
• Ja’Marr Chase: 17-yard reception (Tee Higgins caught a 44-yard pass)
• Khalil Shakir: 12-yard reception (Josh Palmer caught a 32-yard pass)

It’s also worth noting Diggs ranks second on the Patriots in yards against zone coverage. Thus, I predict he clears this benchmark against a bad Jets pass defense. 

Drake Maye Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (+100)

One of my favorite angles against man-heavy defenses is a mobile quarterback using his legs. 

As noted already, the Jets play a ton of man coverage. Maye hasn’t seen that scheme a ton this season, but he has excelled against this prop when he does play it. 

In Week 3, Pittsburgh traveled to New England with a man-heavy pass defense. Maye reeled off a 15-yard scamper. 

Then he played a Browns defense playing man at the league’s highest rate. Maye’s longest rush in that game was 28 yards.

Those two successes came amongst six for Maye this season in 10 games. They also represent his only two contests against a top-10 man coverage unit all season. 

Conversely, New York has surrendered some long runs to mobile signal callers. Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen each had rushes of over 30 yards.. 

Dak Prescott, Bryce Young and Joe Flacco (!!!) also cleared this number. Then Dillon Gabriel pulled off a 19-yard run last week. 

Only Aaron Rodgers (-1), Tua Tagovailoa (5), Bo Nix (11) and Bryce Young (6) stayed under this figure. 

Pair those with New England’s pass-blocking inconsistencies, and I predict Maye clears this for the seventh game. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Patriots vs Jets