2 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for TNF: Falcons at Bucs

Tampa Bay welcomes its second straight NFC South foe for Buccaneers vs Falcons on TNF. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Thursday Night Football Player Prop Predictions

Kyle Pitts Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

When the Falcons face zone coverage, targets are streamlined to three players: Drake London, Bijan Robsinson and Pitts. 

London appears set to miss Thursday’s game, opening up targets for other pass catchers. 

When these teams met in Week 1, Michael Penix threw for 298 yards. Of that total, 214 went to the three aforementioned players. 

Pitts finished with 59 yards against Tampa Bay. Over his last two games – London missed both contests – he notched 82 yards against the Jets and 90 yards against Seattle. 

Across four games without London, Pitts finished over this benchmark three times. 

Even when he failed to surpass 59.5 yards, the targets still showed up for Pitts. All four of those games saw him receive at least five targets, including eight or higher three times. 

Pair that with his previous success against Tampa Bay, and I predict Pitts surpasses 59.5 yards on TNF. 

David Sills Under 2.5 Receptions (-115)

Sills has received more targets of late with London out. However, he has still stayed under this benchmark in four straight games. 

Sills notched at least four targets in two straight games and three or more in three straight. But the issue is he’s running a lot of low-percentage routes. 

Atlanta’s wideout has run at least 16 routes in each of the last nine games. Over that span, he ran at least 20 routes in seven of nine contests and received a target in seven of nine. 

In those seven games where he received a target, Sills notched an average depth of 13 yards. Not once has he finished with an average depth of target under nine yards, per PFF. 

The Bucs rank third in DVOA against both WR1 and WR2. 

Where the defense struggles is against running backs (28th), which could streamline targets to Robinson and the aforementioned Pitts. 

Against zone coverage this season, Sills racked up four receptions on only nine targets. 

Accordingly, I predict Sills finishes under 2.5 receptions against Tampa Bay on TNF. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Buccaneers vs Falcons