2 NFL Player Props for TNF: Broncos vs Raiders

Broncos vs Raiders opens the Week 10 NFL action as Denver aims to stay atop the AFC West. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Broncos vs Raiders Prediction: Player Props

Brock Bowers Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-115)

Where else is the ball going on the Raiders offense? 

If there’s a concern with Bowers, it’s that he performs significantly better against zone coverage. Denver, meanwhile, runs a high rate of man coverage. 

Bowers cleared this number in Denver last season while staying under it in Vegas. However, he’s facing a Denver defense that has surrendered explosive plays of late. 

Since Week 7, Denver ranks 22nd in dropback expected points added (EPA) per play. Comparatively, the team ranks 12th in dropback success rate. 

Translation: teams are either creating huge gains or doing nothing at all. 

Over that span, Denver has particularly struggled against tight ends. 

The unit kept Dallas’ tight ends under this figure in Week 8. However, Vance Joseph’s unit allowed 40+ yard receptions to both New York and Houston’s tight ends. 

Bowers leads all Raiders with 13 targets against man coverage this season. The Raiders just traded Jakobi Meyers, who ranked second with 12. 

Last year, Bowers played two games without Meyers. His numbers: 24 targets, 19 receptions, 164 yards. In those two games, his longest receptions were 18 and 25 yards. 

Troy Franklin Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Very quietly, Franklin has established himself as one of Denver’s best against zone coverage. 

The Raiders run that defensive scheme at the league’s sixth-highest rate (77.2%), per PFF. Amongst Broncos pass catchers this year, Franklin ranks second in yards vs. zone. 

At 322 yards against zone, he trails only Courtland Sutton (331). 

Additionally, with Marvin Mims missing a second straight game, it frees up about 16% of Bo Nix’s targets against zone. 

Irrespective of scheme, Franklin cleared this benchmark three times in nine games. 

However, one of his best outputs – 89 yards against the Cowboys – came against another zone-heavy defense. This season, Las Vegas runs zone at a HIGHER rate than Dallas. 

That marks one of three games for Franklin against a team running zone at a top-10 rate. 

He stayed under this number in two of those three games. However, one failure came last week against a Houston pass defense that is among the best in the league. 

What’s encouraging from last week: Franklin amassed 10 targets against Houston. That led all Denver pass catchers. 

Lastly, only four teams have allowed more yards to WR2s this year than Vegas. Given those trends, I predict a strong game for Franklin on Thursday night. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Broncos vs Raiders