2 NFL Player Props for Week 11 SNF: Eagles vs Lions

A pair of Super Bowl favorites meet on SNF this week in Eagles vs Lions at Lincoln Financial Field. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find  NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Eagles vs Lions Prediction: SNF Player Props

Jalen Hurts Under 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

This strikes me as a very fishy line on Hurts. 

What initially led me to this prop: the Lions play a healthy dose of man coverage. Normally, that coverage scheme lends itself to mobile quarterbacks if wide receivers struggle to get open. 

Hurts, however, has cleared this number only three times in nine games. Two of those three successes came against zone-heavy pass defenses. 

That led me to assume the Lions have surrendered a ton of rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Surprisingly, the opposite is true. 

Only Lamar Jackson has cleared this number against the Lions’ defense this season. Every other quarterback has stayed under this benchmark. 

In addition to Jackson, only two more quarterbacks – Jake Browning, Patrick Mahomes – surpassed 30 rushing yards against the Lions defense. 

One other factor to consider here: the direction of the line move. 

Public support is backing Detroit, but the line has moved in Philly’s direction (-1.5 at open to -2.5). If the line move is an indicator, Philadelphia could see some kneeldowns late in the game. 

That would affect Hurts’ rushing yards prop and reduce his total. As a result, I’ll zag against this market and predict Hurts stays under 33.5 rushing yards. 

A.J. Brown Longest Reception Over 23.5 Yards (-118)

Brown himself is telling fantasy owners to sell his stock. I’m not buying into that rhetoric and like the buy-low spot against a man-heavy Lions defense. 

Only Ladd McConkey has amassed more yards against man coverage than Brown in the NFL. 

He also leads all Eagles pass catchers with a 36.1% target share vs. man. DeVonta Smith sits second at 24.7%. 

Brown’s positive record against man coverage extends to last season. In 2024, he led all NFL receivers with 538 receiving yards against the scheme, per PFF. 

He could receive an even more favorable matchup on Sunday. Terrion Arnold, the Lions’ top corner, could miss Sunday’s game after sitting out practice Wednesday and Thursday. 

Without Arnold, Detroit has struggled to limit explosive plays. Both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Emeka Egbuka produced a 30-yard reception against Detroit. 

Last week against Washington, Arnold played under 50% of all snaps. Even with Marcus Mariota, the Commanders saw TWO different receivers clear this benchmark. 

As a unit, the Lions’ pass defense ranks 27th in DVOA against WR1s. Further, the Lions have surrendered at least one 30+ yard completion in every game this season. 

Pair that with Brown’s record against man coverage, and I predict he clears this number for the fourth game this season. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Eagles vs Lions