2 NFL Player Props for Week 10: Chargers vs Steelers

Los Angeles is the setting for the final Week 10 Sunday game: Chargers vs Steelers. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Chargers vs Steelers Prediction: Player Props

Aaron Rodgers Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Rodgers has cleared this benchmark only three times in eight games this season. 

A pair of those successes came against the two worst pass defenses in the league by DVOA: Cincinnati and the Jets. 

No such advantage exists for Rodgers against the Chargers. Jesse Minter’s unit enters SNF ranked 11th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Conversely, the Steelers rank 17th in the corresponding offensive category. 

But something more interesting exists about this matchup. Entering this game, the Chargers play the second-highest rate of zone coverage in the league (81.2%). 

The secondary has posted impressive numbers in that scheme. Only three teams – New England, Chicago and Indianapolis – outrank the Chargers in DVOA in zone coverage. 

Rodgers has faced two of those teams already this season. He passed for only 139 yards against the Patriots and threw for 203 yards against Indianapolis last week. 

Plus, Rodgers generally isn’t holding the ball very long. Only Tua Tagovailoa posted a shorter average time to throw than Rodgers, which, in turn, reduces deep shots. 

Accordingly, I predict Rodgers stays under this benchmark for the third straight game. 

Justin Herbert Longest Rush Over 11.5 Yards (-135)

Herbert has cleared this number six times in nine games this season. Four of those six achievements came over his last six games. 

Explaining that figure? Overwhelming injuries to the offensive line. Both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are done for the year. Mekhi Becton could miss Sunday’s game as well. 

That gives the Steelers a significant matchup advantage. 

Across the entire season, Pittsburgh ranks second in pass-rush win rate while the Chargers rank 32nd in pass-block win rate. 

If that continues, Pittsburgh rushers could force Herbert to scramble. Potentially problematic for Pittsburgh – the defense plays a high rate of man coverage. 

Generally, that’s an inferior strategy against mobile quarterbacks if the secondary plays further downfield. 

A somewhat limited sample size exists for Pittsburgh against mobile quarterbacks this season. However, both Justin Fields and Drake Maye rushed for a long of 15 yards against Pittsburgh. 

Even Carson Wentz added an 11-yard scamper against the Steelers! 

Based on those factors, I predict another success for Herbert in this market. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Chargers vs Steelers