2 Best NFL Player Props for MNF: Steelers vs Dolphins

Miami tries to extend its winning streak to five games on MNF featuring Steelers vs Dolphins. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the conference matchup. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Steelers vs Dolphins Prediction: Player Props

De’Von Achane Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Contingent upon Steelers defensive lineman Derrick Harmon missing Monday’s game, Achane should shine against this defense. 

Harmon has missed two straight games. Pittsburgh’s defense surrendered over 200 rushing yards as a team in both of those games. 

Upon first glance, comparing Miami’s ground game to Baltimore’s or Buffalo’s might sound foolish. But Miami ranks between those two units in rush offense DVOA.

The Bills rank third at +9.3% while Miami ranks sixth at +4.1%, per ftnfantasy.com. Baltimore rounds out the trio in ninth at +0.2%. 

Plus, Pittsburgh surrendered over 100 yards to Breece Hall in Week 1 sans Harmon. Kenneth Walker added 105 for the Seahawks in Week 2. 

In the four games Harmon missed, Pittsburgh posted a +0.061 EPA per rush. If they recorded that over an entire season, they’d rank 31st in rush EPA per play, per rbsdm.com. 

Achane has cleared this benchmark in a majority of games this season (7/13). That includes four straight successes against Buffalo, Washington, New Orleans and the Jets. 

Given those factors, I predict Achane will finish over this benchmark for the fifth straight game. 

Tua Tagovailoa Longest Completion Under 31.5 Yards (-115)

On the rare occasions Tagovailoa has faced man coverage this season, he has struggled to complete deep passes. 

Tagovailoa has played three games against teams playing man coverage at a top-10 rate without Tyreek Hill. 

In those contests – Baltimore, Cleveland and Jacksonville – he never cleared this benchmark. That came after he succeeded with Hill against a Christian Gonzalez-less Patriots. 

Irrespective of matchup, Miami ranks 25th in pass offense DVOA this season. The offense also ranks 26th in dropback EPA per play. 

If there’s a slight concern, it’s that Tagovailoa ranks fifth in dropback EPA per play vs man. However, he has attempted only 76 passes against the scheme all season. 

Prior to last week’s game against Baltimore, Pittsburgh’s secondary began to clean up its act. Three straight quarterbacks finished under this benchmark for their longest. 

That could lead to a buy-low spot on Pittsburgh, especially given how quickly Tagovailoa is throwing the ball. 

Amongst quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this year, his average time to throw is 2.5 seconds, including 2.43 on attempts. 

Both of those figures lead the NFL. If he continues to get rid of the ball quickly, it will likely lead to fewer explosive plays. 

Based on those factors, I predict he stays under this benchmark for the eighth time on Monday. 

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Steelers vs Dolphins