2 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Panthers at 49ers

San Francisco seeks a second straight win for the first time since Week 2 in 49ers vs Panthers. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Player Prop Picks for Monday Night Football

Brock Purdy Longest Completion Over 35.5 Yards (-120)

Purdy stayed under this benchmark in Arizona, but he receives a favorable matchup on Monday. 

Carolina ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. San Francisco, which has yet to play a bottom-10 opponent in that category, ranks third on offense, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Carolina began the year well against deep throws. However, the defense has fallen off a cliff of late. 

Since Week 5, Carolina’s average longest completion allowed is 47.9 yards. Only Tyrod Taylor (35) stayed under this benchmark against the Panthers. 

We’ve also seen Purdy excel against zone-heavy coverage this season. At Seattle – a much better pass defense – the Iowa State product produced a 45-yard completion. 

From an EPA per play plus completion percentage over expected standpoint, Purdy’s best performance this year came at Seattle. That’s the closest comparison to Carolina’s tendencies. 

At 82%, the Panthers lead the NFL in zone coverage rate, which is 3% higher than Seattle’s. 

While recognizing it’s an imperfect comparison, Purdy has previously dominated zone coverage. In 2023, he ranked third in DVOA vs. zone. Last year, he ranked fifth. 

Given those factors, I predict Purdy clears this benchmark for the second time. 

Tetairoa McMillan Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-110)

The critical place to begin with this analysis: San Francisco generates next to no pressure. 

San Francisco ranks 32nd in sack percentage (2.8%). Particularly since the defense lost Nick Bosa, San Francisco has struggled to limit explosive completions. 

Since Week 6, every opposing quarterback has completed a pass over 23.5 yards. Even Michael Penix generated a 38-yard longest attempt against the Niners. 

Bryce Young’s longest completion line is set at 32.5 yards. I prefer this angle on McMillan, given his recent record and dominance against zone coverage. 

Last week, McMillan faced a Falcons defense that runs zone at a rate similar to the 49ers. He caught eight passes for 130 yards with a longest reception of 30 yards. 

Irrespective of scheme, McMillan cleared this benchmark in six of 11 games. One failure came via the hook. 

McMillan leads all Panthers receivers with 558 yards against zone. No other wide receiver has cleared 200 yards against the coverage scheme. 

San Francisco has allowed at least one wide receiver to produce a reception over 21.5 yards in six straight games. 

Pair that with McMillan’s record against the scheme, and I predict he clears this for a second straight contest. 

49ers vs Panthers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds