2 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Eagles at Bears on Black Friday

Caleb Williams tries to lead Chicago to a fifth straight win in Eagles vs Bears on Black Friday. 

In addition to the pregame spread and total, bettors can now find NFL odds for player props at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Below, I’ve outlined a pair of player prop predictions for the contest. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Player Prop Picks for Bears at Eagles

Caleb Williams Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130)

Williams should expect negative regression on turnovers sooner rather than later. 

The second-year signal caller has thrown only four interceptions this season. However, that record has come against 12 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. 

Just last week, Williams stayed under this benchmark against the Steelers. The record is misleading, though, as he produced three turnover-worthy plays. 

This season, Williams has struggled heavily against zone coverage. All four of his interceptions have come against the scheme, which Philadelphia runs at an above-average rate in the NFL. 

Williams ranks 26th of 32nd in DVOA against zone coverage. Comparatively, he rises to 15th in DVOA against man coverage. 

Philadelphia has forced at least one turnover in three straight games. Both Jared Goff and Dak Prescott threw an interception against the Eagles secondary. 

One last factor to consider here: Williams’ turnovers have almost exclusively come in losses. This season, the USC product threw a pick in two of three defeats. 

Pair that with his negative regression potential, and I predict he throws an interception on Friday. 

Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Over 16.5 Yards (-105)

Hidden in the Bears’ defensive metrics: the defense struggles immensely when they don’t force turnovers. 

Only three teams have posted a worse dropback EPA per play rate on plays excluding turnovers. Recently, the defense has particularly struggled against tight ends. 

The defense kept all three Steelers tight ends under this figure. However, that ended a five-game streak in which the Bears allowed tight ends to record a 20+-yard longest catch. 

It should not be viewed as a coincidence. The struggles against tight ends began when Chicago started losing its linebackers to injury. 

In Chicago’s first four games of the year, only one tight end (Brock Bowers) cleared this figure. 

Goedert has featured in 10 games this season and cleared this benchmark six times. That has come despite playing a difficult schedule for tight ends. 

Entering Week 13, 11 teams have posted a 10% DVOA rating or higher against the position. This marks Goedert’s first game against any of those teams. 

Accordingly, I like the buy-low, sell-high spot on Philadelphia’s tight end. 

Eagles vs Bears Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds