Now that the 2025 NCAA Tournament has advanced to the Sweet 16, the games get far more serious. Gone are the talk of Cinderellas and upsets, as only big brands from power conferences remain.Â
Only four teams will remain in the hunt for the 2025 men’s basketball national championship after this week.Â
For those who have already bet the March Madness futures and are looking for a few single-game betting options, here are a few betting predictions I like for this week’s Sweet 16 schedule.Â
Sweet 16 Odds
| Date (Region) | Favorite (Spread) | Underdog (Spread) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, March 27 (East) | Alabama (-5.5) | BYU (+5.5) | 175.5 |
| Thursday, March 27 (West) | Florida (-6.5) | Maryland (+6.5) | 156.5 |
| Thursday, March 27 (East) | Duke (-9.5) | Arizona (+9.5) | 153.5 |
| Thursday, March 27 (West) | Texas Tech (-5.5) | Arkansas (+5.5) | 148.5 |
| Friday, March 28 (South) | Michigan State (-3.5) | Ole Miss (+3.5) | 143.5 |
| Friday, March 28 (Midwest) | Tennessee (-4.5) | Kentucky (+4.5) | 144.5 |
| Friday, March 28 (South) | Auburn (-8.5) | Michigan (+8.5) | 153.5 |
| Friday, March 28 (Midwest) | Houston (-7.5) | Purdue (+7.5) | 132.5 |
Alabama vs. BYU Prediction
I’m not surprised to see this total floating up, even early in the week. Alabama is all about modern, effective offense, including high-volume emphasis on the three. They play at the fastest rate in Division I basketball. Oh, and BYU defends the arc quite poorly.
The Cougars aren’t Alabama, but they do have an effective field goal percentage north of 57%, which is a top 10 mark in Division I.
The over is 6-1 in games where BYU is the underdog.
Alabama vs. BYU Pick: Over 175.5
Michigan State vs. Ole Miss Prediction
This might be an overly simplistic way to look at the tournament, but I’m just not betting against Tom Izzo in this game.Â
The sportsbook needed to hang a price that would deter me from betting against Michigan State here, and 3.5 ain’t it.
Michigan State vs Ole Miss Pick: Michigan State -3.5
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Prediction
It’s not just that the Tennessee men’s team – and head coach Rick Barnes in particular – are famous NCAA Tournament underachievers.
This bet is specifically about Kentucky, which swept Tennessee in the regular season and is looking for its third win against the Vols this season.Â
The conventional wisdom is that it’s hard to beat a good team three times in one season. But this is more of a folksy coaching observation made for deployment in press conferences, not sportsbooks. Historically, in this situation, college basketball teams that won the first two games go on to win the third game more than 60% of the time.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Pick: Kentucky +4.5; Kentucky +150
No. 1 Seed Parlay
The Maryland-Florida game scares me a little bit, but I do feel pretty confident about the other three No. 1 seeds advancing at least one more round.Â
At BetMGM, a three-leg parlay with No. 1 Houston, No. 1 Duke, and No. 1 Auburn is currently available at -110.
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