For the first time since 2008 and only the second time since tournament expansion of the 1980s, all four No. 1 seeds won their regions and advanced to the Final Four.
That’s sure to create a massive wave of attention on Saturday. Whoever wins the national championship will need to beat a pair of top five opponents in the next handful of days.
Millions of casual basketball fans will tune in to one of the most highly anticipated semifinal sets of all time. Many of those millions will also be looking for odds, game predictions, and betting angles.
I’ve got you covered with my Final Four odds and analysis here, but make sure you also check out my broader analysis of the March Madness futures market when you’re done here. (You seriously will not believe how many people have bet on Duke this month.)
Final Four Odds: 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament
| Game | Favorite (Spread) | Underdog (Spread) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semifinal #1 | Florida (-2.5) | Auburn (+2.5) | 160.5 |
| Semifinal #2 | Duke (-4.5) | Houston (+4.5) | 136.5 |
Florida vs. Auburn Prediction
Florida has been the public darling of the left side of the bracket since Selection Sunday. The Gators have become the No. 2 most popular championship bet among BetMGM players with just over 9% of all tickets, and Florida -2.5 is the No. 2 most popular ticket among the early action at the Final Four.
Florida is a good team with NBA players on it, so this is no knock on the Gators. But since the beginning of March, I’ve sensed the massive public crush on Florida is a function of the reactionary, late-arriving nature of the March Madness betting market.
Florida won the SEC Tournament and snagged the final No. 1 seed. Auburn played a nearly opposite track, dominating a very good SEC throughout the entire regular season, but stumbling with three late losses in the final week of the regular season, plus the SEC Tournament.
That fact pattern has totally inverted the market on Florida and Auburn. After playing most of the regular season as the national champion favorite, the Tigers are now the longest team in the Final Four at +525.
Even after losing a head-to-head home game to the Gators in February, it would have been virtually inconceivable six weeks ago to learn that the Tigers would be an underdog in the Final Four.
I’ve successfully reaped profits from the market’s Auburn skepticism with spread bets on the Tigers in the second round, Sweet 16, and Elite Eight. I think there’s still value in this approach, though I’m now moving to the moneyline.
I don’t blame anyone who wants to sit on their hands for a couple days and get a firmer report on the health of SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome. But I’m not waiting.
Give me Auburn – the title favorite from just one month ago – to win outright at +125.
Florida vs. Auburn Pick: Auburn +125
Duke vs. Houston Prediction
Like most college basketball fans and analysts, I think Duke is on a hard march to the title game. I’m not sure any team can stop them at this point – especially after that demolition of a very good Alabama team.
That said, I’m a little wary of laying 4.5 points in what is likely to be a low-scoring game against defense-minded Houston. I’d rather take the moneyline and pair it with a second leg from another sport – perhaps a favorable pitchers matchup from the upcoming weekend’s MLB slate, or a player I like in the Charleston Open.
So, that’s the side: Duke moneyline at -210.
For the total, I’m probably getting involved with yet another Houston under. Houston unders are 3-1 during this NCAA Tournament, and first-half unders are on a 3-0 stretch since the Cougars’ offense started fast against No. 16 seed SIU-Edwardsville in the first round.
Duke’s powerful offense has a tendency to shoot games over, which is one of several reasons why BetMGM players are pounding the Over 136.5 here at a ticket ratio of nearly 4-to-1.
I’ll fade the public here and expect Houston’s defense to curtail even the mighty Cooper Flagg & Friends.
With one unit apiece on the 1H under and full-game under, that gives me plenty of exposure on Saturday’s nightcap.
Duke vs. Houston Pick: Duke -210, Under 136.5, 1H Under 63.5
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