The college basketball season is underway, and conference play is approaching. That means bettors have already gotten several weeks of games to evaluate, with the meat of the season still to come.
Like any major sport, the futures market is constantly shifting throughout the regular season. Those movements can lead to valuable buy spots for bettors who are paying close attention.
So for ambitious handicappers who like to establish early positions, here’s a look at this season’s NCAA basketball odds for the 2026 national championship, as well as a few notes and numbers to consider before betting.
Odds to Win NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, 2025-26
| Team | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | +2500 | |
| Arizona | +4000 | |
| UConn | +1400 | |
| Duke | +1000 | |
| Purdue | +1800 | |
| Iowa State | +3000 | |
| Gonzaga | +3000 | |
| Houston | +900 | |
| Michigan State | +3000 | |
| Louisville | +1700 | |
| Kansas | +2000 | |
| Florida | +2000 | |
| Illinois | +6000 | |
| BYU | +2000 | |
| Arkansas | +2000 | |
| Alabama | +2000 | |
| St. John's | +2500 | |
| North Carolina | +4000 | |
| Vanderbilt | +15000 |
College Basketball National Championship Prediction, 2025-26
Based on the current futures market, the Michigan Wolverines have an implied 21.1% chance to win the NCAA men’s basketball championship next year.
College Basketball National Championship Odds: Early Analysis
It’s hard to talk about college basketball right now without starting with Michigan. The Wolverines are utterly destroying teams right now, flying into a big favorite position in the futures market in the process.
Michigan is also the No. 1 team in KenPom right now and leads Div. I men’s basketball in adjusted defensive efficiency. In a 15-day stretch from Nov. 24 to Dec. 9, the Wolverines beat San Diego State, Auburn, Gonzaga, Rutgers, and Villanova by an average of 36 points per game.
All five are top-150 opponents, per KenPom. Everyone except Rutgers is top-50.
With Michigan looking quite a bit like this year’s Florida, BetMGM players are racing to the sportsbook to buy up the Wolverines in the futures market. As of Dec. 15, 11.5% of tickets and 15.1% of handle are on Michigan to win the national championship in April. Both figures are market highs.
The most popular teams behind Michigan in the championship market are still largely the teams that were popular in the preseason period:
- Duke (9.1% tickets, 7.9% handle)
- Purdue (8.9% tickets, 10.3% handle)
- Houston (7.2% tickets, 7.1% handle)
- UConn (6.4% tickets, 8.6% handle)
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