The Oklahoma City Thunder will have a tough act to follow after last year’s 68-win season ended with an NBA championship.
Based on the preseason NBA betting lines, Oklahoma City has a win total of 62.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook. It marks the highest preseason win total since the Golden State Warriors had an over/under of 62.5 ahead of 2018-19.
Thunder Over/Under Wins 2025-26
- Over 62.5 wins: -110
- Under 62.5 wins: -110
Thunder Win Total Prediction
- Under 62.5 wins
Nobody should be rushing to fade the Thunder, so this win total prediction is more of a lean than anything else.
However, history isn’t on Oklahoma City’s side.
It’s difficult to surpass this high of a win total. The Warriors had a win total of 62.5 or more three different times between 2016 and 2018, failing to clear that mark twice.
- 2016-17: 66.5 win total (67 wins)
- 2017-18: 67.5 win total (58 wins)
- 2018-19: 62.5 win total (57 wins)
Additionally, the Miami Heat had a projected win total of 64.5 ahead of the 2010-11 campaign. They finished with 58 victories.
It’s hard to exceed expectations when expectations are so high. That’s particularly true when competing in a tough Western Conference.
Coming off an NBA championship, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Thunder take their foot off the gas in the regular season. This team knows that it needs to prepare for another deep postseason run.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has already won one MVP award, indicating that there might not be as much motivation to pursue it again.
If Oklahoma City does dial it back, it could be difficult to surpass this lofty win total.
Thunder Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 57.5 | 68 | Over |
| 2023-24 | 44.5 | 57 | Over |
| 2022-23 | 23.5 | 40 | Over |
| 2021-22 | 23.5 | 24 | Over |
| 2020-21 | 22.5 | 22 | Under |
| 2019-20 | 32.5 | 44 | Void |
| 2018-19 | 48.5 | 49 | Over |
| 2017-18 | 53.5 | 48 | Under |
| 2016-17 | 45 | 47 | Over |
| 2015-16 | 57.5 | 55 | Under |
| 2014-15 | 53 | 45 | Under |
| 2013-14 | 51.5 | 59 | Over |
| 2012-13 | 60.5 | 60 | Under |
| 2011-12 | 46.5 | 47 | Over |
| 2010-11 | 51.5 | 55 | Over |
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