The Oklahoma City Thunder (24-1) and San Antonio Spurs (17-7) will meet in the NBA Cup semifinals at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday in Las Vegas on Amazon Prime.
I have a feeling this will become a familiar matchup for the next several postseasons. The Thunder, coming off an NBA championship, aim to build a dynasty as the best team in the league. The Spurs project to be their primary challenger sooner rather than later, particularly once Victor Wembanyama becomes one of the best players in the league.
None of that is on the table in Saturday’s meeting, of course, but there is a trip to the NBA Cup championship game on the line. Oklahoma City is a double-digit favorite, but Wembanyama’s potential return could alter the market.
Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction: Saturday, Dec. 13
- Under 225.5 (-110)
Based on the initial NBA betting lines, I like the under for my favorite Spurs vs. Thunder prediction in Saturday’s NBA Cup semifinal matchup.
It’s easy to make the case for the Oklahoma City side of this Under. The Thunder rank No. 1 in the league in defensive rating, with a mark that is seven points better than the second-best team in that metric.
Oklahoma City held the Phoenix Suns to 89 points in Wednesday’s win during the NBA Cup quarterfinals. The Thunder have held five of their last 10 opponents to 105 points or fewer. They are allowing 106.2 points per game.
However, the Under is even more appealing if Wembanyama returns for the Spurs.
The Spurs haven’t been the same defensively without him, ranking 20th in defensive rating over the past 12 games. San Antonio was sixth in defensive rating during the first 12 games of the year before Wembanyama’s injury.
According to Cleaning the Glass, San Antonio is 14.2 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Wembanyama on the floor this year. The difference was 9.2 points per 100 possessions last year.
If Wembanyama is upgraded to probable before Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this total drop a bit, and the spread move toward the Spurs. I prefer the Under, given the multiple paths for this game.
Prediction: Under 225.5 (-110)
Spurs vs. Thunder Odds for NBA Cup
- Spurs spread: +10.5
- Thunder spread: -10.5
- Total: 225.5
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