The NBA Cup championship will pit a pair of marquee franchises against each other when the New York Knicks face the San Antonio Spurs. Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, streaming on Amazon Prime Video.
Although Tuesday’s title game doesn’t officially count toward the record, there is prize money and a banner on the line. Perhaps more importantly, it’s a chance for both teams to make a statement.
The Knicks are hoping to establish themselves as the Eastern Conference favorites. They haven’t reached the NBA Finals since 1999, but aim to change that next summer. The Spurs would love to prove they have arrived and should be taken seriously as a contender.
Either way, it sets up for a thrilling showdown between two motivated teams.
Spurs vs. Knicks Prediction: Tuesday, Dec. 16
- Over 227.5 (-110) – Pick made Monday
Based on the initial NBA betting lines, I like the Over for my favorite Spurs vs. Knicks prediction in Tuesday’s NBA Cup championship game.
In Saturday’s NBA Cup semifinal, I liked the Under at 225.5 for the Spurs’ eventual 111-109 upset of the Oklahoma City Thunder. That proved to be the right call, but Victor Wembanyama played fewer minutes than expected in his return from injury.
Wembanyama played 21 minutes off the bench during his first game in a month. There is a chance that he remains on a similar minutes restriction for Tuesday’s NBA Cup title game. His role matters because San Antonio is a different team with him than without him.
According to Databallr, the Spurs have a defensive rating of 107.7 in 415 minutes with Wembanyama this year. For context, that mark would be good enough to be the second-best defensive team in the league.
In 729 minutes without Wembanyama, San Antonio has a defensive rating of 119.9. That mark is only better than two teams in the full-season metrics.
Basically, Wembanyama’s presence alone is good enough to make the Spurs an elite defensive team. But I’m not sure how much he will play on Tuesday, and the Knicks, who rank No. 2 in the NBA in offensive rating, can take advantage when he’s on the bench.
New York scored 132 points against the Orlando Magic (No. 6 in defensive rating) during Saturday’s semifinal win. The Knicks are averaging 124 points during their current five-game win streak.
The Dunks & Threes model projects a 120-117 win for New York. That seems like a fair projection, and one that would result in an over on the full-game total.
Prediction: Over 227.5. (-110)
Spurs vs. Knicks Odds for NBA Cup Championship
- Spurs spread: +2.5
- Knicks spread: -2.5
- Total: 233.5
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