NBA Coach of the Year Odds 2026: Mark Daigneault in Front

There continues to be a science to predicting the NBA’s Coach of the Year.

Cleveland Cavaliers’ Kenny Atkinson won the award in 2024-25, guiding his team to 64 wins and the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland had a win increase of 16 games in Atkinson’s first year at the helm, clearing the team’s preseason win total (48.5) by 15.5 games.

And all those factors follow a familiar pattern in this market, something I projected when I argued for Atkinson at 30/1 in the preseason.

Atkinson became the 10th Coach of the Year winner since 2010-11 to lead his team to a No. 1 seed. The average playoff seed for a COY winner over the last 15 years is 1.7. It’s not enough to exceed expectations; a team must be exceptional to earn recognition from voters.

The last 15 Coach of the Year winners have guided their teams to an average of 57.7 wins. The previous 15 recipients of this award have guided their teams to an average improvement of 11.9 wins over the prior season.

Lastly, the average preseason win total since 2010-11 has been 45.4.

With that in mind, here’s a look at the NBA betting lines and top predictions for the Coach of the Year market during the 2025-26 season:

Odds to Win NBA Coach of the Year 2026

Who Will Win NBA Coach of the Year in 2026?

Mark Daigneault of the Oklahoma City Thunder is the new betting favorite to win the NBA Coach of the Year award. His +200 odds give him an implied probability of 33.33% in December.

Daigneault is the fourth different favorite in this market since the season began. He passed Detroit Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff in mid-December. Bickerstaff leaped San Antonio Spurs’ Mitch Johnson, who propelled past Orlando Magic’s Jamahl Mosley atop this board.

I understand the argument for Daigneault if the Thunder set the regular-season wins record.

But if the defending champions don’t do that, I have a hard time believing in Daigneault as the front-runner. Everyone knew the Thunder would be awesome, and this team can’t collect all the awards. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP favorite, while Chet Holmgren is favored to win Defensive Player of the Year.

To me, Bickerstaff’s case as the favorite made more sense. He has the Pistons off to a surprising lead in the Eastern Conference, which helps someone win Coach of the Year. Bickerstaff should know that better than anyone after finishing runner-up in last year’s race.

Last season, there was a push for Bickerstaff to win Coach of the Year in his first season with the Pistons. He helped guide them to 44 wins and a playoff berth, one year after they won 14 games.

However, voters ultimately preferred Atkinson’s case. He replaced Bickerstaff, leading Cleveland to 64 wins and the top seed in the East. It was the latest example of coaches on elite teams being rewarded.

If the Pistons can maintain this level of play, Bickerstaff will have a much stronger case. Detroit entered the year with a win total of 46.5, which is ideal, as this award is typically given to the team that claimed a top seed after entering the year with a win total in the 40s.

Given that it’s still early, I don’t think all the candidates in this race have fully emerged. But if the season ended today, Bickerstaff would be my pick to win this award.

Prediction: J.B. Bickerstaff

NBA Coach of the Year Voting 2024-25

Past NBA Coach of the Year Winners

Who Has Won the Most Coach of the Year Awards in NBA History?

Three different coaches have won three Coach of the year awards in NBA history:

• Don Nelson (1983, 1985, 1992)
• Gregg Popovich (2003, 2012, 2014)
• Pat Riley (1990, 1993, 1997)

Larry Brown also won three ABA Coach of the Year awards, claiming the honor in 1973, 1975, and 1976.