The Dallas Mavericks enter the 2025-26 NBA season with a win total of 41.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
After trading Luka Dončić for Anthony Davis at the deadline, the Mavericks finished 39-43 and were eliminated from the play-in tournament. They got lottery luck, drafting Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick.
Mavericks Over/Under Wins 2025-26
- Over 41.5 wins: -105
- Under 41.5 wins: -115
Mavericks Win Total Prediction
- Under 41.5 wins
The market seems to be higher on the Mavs than I am, which is why I like under on this win total after it’s climbed by two games.
For the first several days of free agency, there were several segments on TV debating whether the Mavericks are championship contenders with a healthy Kyrie Irving.
The thing is, there doesn’t need to be a hypothetical debate. Irving isn’t healthy after suffering a torn ACL in late March. Given his age (33), it’s reasonable to expect a longer recovery process.
Even if he does return within a year, it’s impossible to predict what kind of player he will be initially. The Mavs could also be out of the mix in the Western Conference, as their other star (Davis) is an injury risk.
Davis has only had one season since 2020 in which he has played more than 56 games. The West is too competitive for the Mavs to overcome an extended stretch without their best player, as they discovered last year.
Think about how everyone viewed the Lakers in recent years when Davis and LeBron James led them. They were consistently a play-in team, averaging 41.25 wins between 2020 and 2024.
Now, take James off that team and replace him with Flagg in his rookie season. Would anyone think that team has upside?
Dunks & Threes projects 39.8 wins for Dallas, making the under a play for me.
Mavericks Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 49.5 | 39 | Under |
| 2023-24 | 45.5 | 50 | Over |
| 2022-23 | 48.5 | 38 | Under |
| 2021-22 | 48.5 | 52 | Over |
| 2020-21 | 42.5 | 42 | Under |
| 2019-20 | 40.5 | 43 | Void |
| 2018-19 | 35.5 | 33 | Under |
| 2017-18 | 35.5 | 24 | Under |
| 2016-17 | 39.5 | 33 | Over |
| 2015-16 | 36.5 | 42 | Over |
| 2014-15 | 49.5 | 50 | Over |
| 2013-14 | 43.5 | 49 | Over |
| 2012-13 | 44.5 | 41 | Under |
| 2011-12 | 44.5 | 36 | Under |
| 2010-11 | 49.5 | 57 | Over |
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