The Los Angeles Lakers enter the 2025-26 NBA season with a win total of 46.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Los Angeles won 50 games and claimed the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference during JJ Redick’s first year as the head coach.
However, the preseason NBA odds expect the Lakers to take a slight step back in what could be the final year with LeBron James on the roster.
Lakers Over/Under Wins 2025-26
- Over 46.5 wins: -120
- Under 46.5 wins: +100
Lakers Win Total Prediction
- Under 47.5 wins (Pick made Oct. 2)
Taking the under on the Lakers’ preseason win total is usually a smart bet, especially with the market inflating their over/under.
Los Angeles had finished under its win total five times in a six-year span between 2018-19 and 2023-24. That streak ended last year, when head coach JJ Redick led the Lakers to 50 wins, clearing their over/under of 43.5.
Redick deserves a ton of credit for maximizing the Lakers’ potential, particularly given the significant changes that occurred throughout the season. They eventually traded Anthony Davis for Luka Dončić in one of the most stunning trades in NBA history.
The Lakers will benefit from having a full offseason with their new roster, but they are also due for some regression. They posted an expected record of 44-38 and had an extended stretch where they ranked No. 1 in defensive rating due to some 3-point luck.
Los Angeles finished 15th in defensive rating last year, but could take a step back on that end of the floor after trading away Davis, Max Christie, and letting Dorian Finney-Smith walk in free agency. The Lakers will need to be elite on the offensive end to compensate.
However, this group didn’t show signs of being an elite offense last season. Last year’s post-deadline starting lineup (Dončić, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, and Jaxson Hayes) ranked in the 30th percentile in points per possession, per Cleaning the Glass.
Unless the Lakers can be one of the best offensive teams in the league after ranking 12th in offensive rating last year, I have a difficult time projecting them to finish with 48-plus wins.
Lakers Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 43.5 | 50 | Over |
| 2023-24 | 47.5 | 47 | Under |
| 2022-23 | 44.5 | 43 | Under |
| 2021-22 | 52.5 | 33 | Under |
| 2020-21 | 47.5 | 42 | Under |
| 2019-20 | 50.5 | 71 | Void |
| 2018-19 | 48.5 | 37 | Under |
| 2017-18 | 33.5 | 35 | Over |
| 2016-17 | 24.5 | 26 | Over |
| 2015-16 | 28.5 | 17 | Under |
| 2014-15 | 29 | 21 | Under |
| 2013-14 | 36.5 | 27 | Under |
| 2012-13 | 58.5 | 45 | Under |
| 2011-12 | 42.5 | 41 | Under |
| 2010-11 | 56.5 | 57 | Over |
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