The Boston Celtics begin the 2025-26 NBA season with a win total of 41.5 at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
After Jayson Tatum suffered an Achilles injury in the postseason, the Celtics traded away veterans Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis, signaling this will be a gap year before their best player returns to the floor.
Celtics Over/Under Wins 2025-26
- Over 41.5 wins: -105
- Under 41.5 wins: -115
Celtics Win Total Prediction
- Under 43.5 wins (Pick made on July 10)
It’s challenging to tank in the Eastern Conference, which is why the Celtics still project to flirt with a winning record after trading away multiple key players from a team that has won 125 regular-season games over the last two years.
However, I’m not sure Boston is done selling. The Celtics are still atop the updated NBA salary cap rankings, suggesting they could afford to offload more contracts this year to duck below the second apron.
Anfernee Simons, who was the return in the Holiday trade, is the leading candidate to be traded away this season. That could remove some offensive punch for a team that suddenly doesn’t have much left.
Jaylen Brown (22.2 points per game last year), Derrick White (16.4ppg), and Payton Pritchard (14.3ppg) are the returning players who averaged double figures last year. Luka Garza currently projects as the team’s starting center.
There will be a drop-off for the Celtics, who were the No. 2 seed last year. I just don’t think people realize how much better the East got over the offseason.
The Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, and Milwaukee Bucks all improved. The New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers remain among the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Detroit Pistons are also better than the Celtics on paper.
All of a sudden, Boston projects as a play-in team. Last year in the East, not a single play-in team had a winning record.
Don’t be surprised if the Celtics are fighting to finish .500 next season.
Celtics Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | 58.5 | 61 | Over |
| 2023-24 | 54.5 | 64 | Over |
| 2022-23 | 54.5 | 57 | Over |
| 2021-22 | 45.5 | 51 | Over |
| 2020-21 | 44.5 | 36 | Under |
| 2019-20 | 48.5 | 48 | Void |
| 2018-19 | 59 | 49 | Under |
| 2017-18 | 53.5 | 55 | Over |
| 2016-17 | 52.5 | 53 | Over |
| 2015-16 | 45.5 | 48 | Over |
| 2014-15 | 27 | 40 | Over |
| 2013-14 | 28.5 | 25 | Under |
| 2012-13 | 51.5 | 41 | Under |
| 2011-12 | 40.5 | 39 | Under |
| 2010-11 | 52.5 | 56 | Over |
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