Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Game 1 ALDS Preview

Two American League East rivals will meet in the ALDS in a matchup between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays. First pitch for Game 1 is set for 4:08 p.m. ET on Saturday at the Rogers Centre on FOX.

The Blue Jays won the division title in the regular season via a tiebreaker after taking eight of the 13 head-to-head meetings. However, the Yankees enter as -155 favorites to win the ALDS after claiming last year’s pennant.

Here’s a look at the latest MLB odds and my Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction ahead of Game 1:

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds for Game 1

• Yankees moneyline: +100
• Blue Jays moneyline: -120
• Total: 8.5

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction for Game 1

According to the initial MLB betting lines, my favorite Yankees vs. Blue Jays prediction is Kevin Gausman’s strikeouts prop (6.5) ahead of Saturday’s Game 1 of the ALDS.

This feels like a high number, considering the Yankees have seen Gausman plenty of times. Gausman had four starts against New York in the regular season, clearing this prop once. In his most recent outing against the Yankees, Gausman recorded five strikeouts across eight innings.

I’d be surprised if Gausman has that long of a leash in Game 1, particularly with a rested bullpen behind him after a week off. His outs prop is sitting at 16.5, suggesting he could be pulled early in the sixth inning.

Gausman has averaged about a strikeout per inning over the last two years. He fanned 189 batters in 193 innings this season after posting 162 strikeouts across 165 frames in 2024. According to Baseball Savant, Gausman’s whiff rate ranks in the 59th percentile this year.

I project Gausman to finish with five strikeouts on Saturday, so I like this under at 6.5.

Prediction: Kevin Gausman under 6.5 strikeouts (-129)