- Get MLB expert picks and analysis for Padres vs. Cubs.
- The Cubs are -130 favorites in Game 1.
- Chicago is -125 to win the series.
In the second game of Tuesday’s four-game slate, the Chicago Cubs will host the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of the NL wild card at 3:08 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. It’s the only game televised on ABC instead of ESPN.
This could be one of the most fascinating matchups between two teams capable of making a deep run. The Cubs have an elite offense, while the Padres have a bullpen built for success in October.
The betting market can’t really decide what to do with this matchup, listing the Cubs as short favorites at home in the opener. They also have a slight edge as -125 series favorites.
Here’s a look at the latest MLB odds and my Padres vs. Cubs prediction ahead of Game 1:
Padres vs. Cubs Odds for Game 1
- Padres moneyline: +110
- Cubs moneyline: -130
- Total: 7
Padres vs. Cubs Prediction for Game 1
According to the latest MLB betting lines, I like the under on the outs prop for San Diego starter Nick Pivetta for my Padres vs. Cubs prediction in Game 1.
The reason why I like this prop so much is that there are two avenues for getting the ticket to the window:
- The Cubs chase Pivetta from the game.
- The Padres grab an early lead and deploy their bullpen.
The Cubs enter the postseason with a lineup capable of winning it all. They rank sixth in the majors with a wRC+ of 110, as seven different players have a wRC+ of 109 or higher this year. There won’t be many easy outs for the Padres’ pitching staff.
Pivetta has posted a 13-5 record with a 2.87 ERA in 31 starts this year. He’s allowed six runs over his last two starts, recording 31 outs over that span.
Starters have a shorter leash in the postseason, and that should be especially true for Pivetta with San Diego’s elite bullpen behind him. The Padres’ bullpen has the best ERA (3.06) in the sport and has several trustworthy relievers to call on to get outs this postseason.
San Diego would prefer to shorten this game and trust its bullpen. Chicago wants to get on top early against a pitcher giving up plenty of hard contact.
Either way, I expect it to be a short night for Pivetta in Game 1.
Prediction: Nick Pivetta under 15.5 outs (-160)
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