- Toledo is a -7 point favorite vs. Western Kentucky
- Western Kentucky vs. Toledo Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
Western Kentucky (2-0) visit Glass Bowl to take on Toledo (0-1) on Sep. 6 in Toledo, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Toledo is a betting favorite in Week 2, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).
The Western Kentucky vs. Toledo Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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Western Kentucky vs. Toledo Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Western Kentucky | +7 -115 | 58.5 -105 | +220 |
| Toledo | -7 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -275 |
Western Kentucky vs Toledo Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Toledo will win this game with 63.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Western Kentucky and Toledo, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Western Kentucky vs Toledo Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Toledo will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Western Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Western Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Toledo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Toledo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.70 Units / 52% ROI)
- Toledo have covered the 1H Spread in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Toledo has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Western Kentucky is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Western Kentucky is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 5.17% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Western Kentucky is 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Toledo Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Toledo iss 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Toledo is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Toledo is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Toledo is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Toledo
Western Kentucky was 7-1 (.875) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2024 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .644
Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2024 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .606
Western Kentucky was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times in the 2024 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .528
Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays in the 2024 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .574
Toledo: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky
Toledo was 5-1 (.833) when not losing a fumble in the 2024 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .535
Toledo was 7-2 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass in the 2024 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .670
Toledo was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times in the 2024 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .574
Toledo was 10-2 (.833) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities in the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .557
Matchup Notes for Western Kentucky vs. Toledo
Toledo’s RBs has rushed for 57 yards on 20 carries (just 2.8 YPC) this season — T-13th-worst among FBS RBs. Western Kentucky’s defense have allowed 4.8 YPC this season — T-28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Chip Trayanum (TOL) has been targeted 6 times this season — T-8th-most of Qualified Running Back. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed 80 yards receiving to RBs — 4th-most among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs has gained 682 yards on 47 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 3.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs has gained 682 yards on 47 receptions (14.5 YPR) this season — T-34th-best among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense has allowed just 8.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Western Kentucky’s WRs has been targeted 69 times this season — 2nd-most among FBS WRs. Toledo’s defense has allowed 85 receiving yards this season — 5th-fewest among NonP5 defenses.
Western Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky Skill Players have 14 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky QBs have 6 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down this season– most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky WRs have 13 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky Skill Players have 800 receiving yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky QBs have 14 completions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Toledo Offensive Stats & Trends
Toledo Skill Players have 4 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo RBs have been targeted 5 times in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Toledo QBs have 4 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down this season– T-5th-most among FBS Teams
Toledo RBs had no touchdowns on 42 receptions in the 2024 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 19.8
Toledo Skill Players have picked up first downs on 8 receptions in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Western Kentucky Defensive Stats & Trends
Western Kentucky allowed 3,097 rushing yards in the 2024 season– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Western Kentucky allowed 3,097 rushing yards in the 2024 season– 2nd-most in FBS
Western Kentucky tackled opponents for a loss on just 70 of 619 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) in the 2024 season– T-10th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Western Kentucky has not forced a fumble (68 carries) this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 51.1
Western Kentucky allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (21 completions/44 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go in the 2024 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Toledo Defensive Stats & Trends
Toledo opponents averaged 34.2 Passing Attempts per TD (411 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.8
Toledo has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 43 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) this season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Toledo has not sacked an opposing QB in 1 games this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 2.1
Toledo allowed 9 TDs in close and late situations in the 2024 season– T-4th-most in FBS
Toledo allowed 16 rushing TDs on 525 carries (32.8 Carries Per TD) in the 2024 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21
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