Western Kentucky vs LSU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2025, 12:40 PM

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LSU head coach Brian Kelly argues a call during the third quarter of an NCAA college football game against Missouri, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Columbia, Mo. LSU won 49-39. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

(AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)

LSU is a -22.5 point favorite vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky vs. LSU Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
TV Channel: SECN

Western Kentucky (8-2) visit Tiger Stadium to take on LSU (6-4) on Nov. 22 in Baton Rouge, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45pm EST.

LSU is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -22.5 (-110).

The Western Kentucky vs. LSU Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Western Kentucky vs. LSU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Western Kentucky	+22.5 -110	48.5 -105	1100
LSU	-22.5 -110	48.5 -115	-2500

Western Kentucky vs LSU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 76.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Western Kentucky and LSU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Western Kentucky vs LSU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Western Kentucky will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Western Kentucky Best Bets Today

Western Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Western Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+2.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Western Kentucky has hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.65 Units / 18% ROI)
Western Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+0.95 Units / 6% ROI)

LSU Best Bets Today

LSU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 8 games at home (+8.20 Units / 10% ROI)
LSU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)
LSU has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.82 Units / 35% ROI)
LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Western Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Western Kentucky is 8-2 against the spread this college football season (+5.8 Units / 52.73% ROI).

Western Kentucky is 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.6 Units / 7.91% ROI
Western Kentucky is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Western Kentucky is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU iss 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.55 Units / -36.04% ROI).

LSU is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 6.2% ROI
LSU is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
LSU is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Western Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .570

Western Kentucky was undefeated (8-0) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays last season– T-best in FBS; Average: .604

Western Kentucky was 7-3 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526

Western Kentucky is 8-1 (.889) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– 5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .604

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Western Kentucky

LSU TEs were targeted 25 times with 4-6 yards to go last season– most among SEC Teams

LSU RBs averaged just 3.1 Yards per Carry (245 yards/79 carries) in the 4th quarter last season– 4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

LSU Skill Players were targeted 40.2 times per game (522/13) last season– highest among SEC Teams; Average: 29.4

LSU RBs averaged 17.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (161 yards / 9 touches) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 6.8

LSU TEs averaged 5.7 receptions per game (74/13) last season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 3.8

Matchup Notes for Western Kentucky vs. LSU