Washington St vs North Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 3

  • North Texas is a -6 point favorite vs. Washington St
  • Washington State vs. North Texas Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPNU

Washington State (2-0) visit DATCU Stadium to take on North Texas (2-0) on Sep. 13 in Denton, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

North Texas is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Washington State vs. North Texas Over/Under is 59.5 total points.

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Washington State vs. North Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Washington State+6 -11059.5 -115185
North Texas -6 -11059.5 -105-225

Washington State vs North Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts North Texas will win this game with 63.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Washington St and North Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Washington State vs North Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Texas will cover the spread with 63.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Washington State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Washington State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Washington State has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Washington State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Washington State have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • North Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 48% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • North Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.00 Units / 13% ROI)

Washington State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Washington St is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Washington State is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 22.86% ROI
  • Washington State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Washington State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

North Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

North Texas iss 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • North Texas is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 6.04% ROI
  • North Texas is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • North Texas is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Washington State: Keys to the Game vs. North Texas

Washington State is 8-1 (.889) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .528

Washington State is 7-3 (.700) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2024 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .497

Washington State is 7-2 (.778) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .646

Washington State was 6-3 (.667) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .429

North Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Washington State

North Texas is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-39th-best in FBS; Average: .646

North Texas was 1-4 (.200) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush last season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .420

North Texas is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2024 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .608

North Texas was 4-1 (.800) when not losing a fumble in the 2023 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .517

Matchup Notes for Washington State vs. North Texas

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 553 passing yards in 2 games (276.5 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS offenses. Washington State’s defense has allowed just 83.0 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

North Texas’s WRs has 306 receptions in 15 games (20.4 per game) since the 2024 season — 2nd-best among FBS WRs. Washington State’s defense has allowed 15.1 receptions per game to WRs since the 2024 season — T-5th-worst among FBS defenses.

North Texas has gained 553 yards on 42 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-35th-best among FBS skill players. Washington State’s defense has allowed just 6.1 Yards Per Reception this season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Washington State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.8% of 73 attempts this season — T-26th-worst among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.4% of attempts this season — 4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Washington State has gained 465 yards on 51 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Power 5 skill players. North Texas’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Washington State has gained 465 yards on 51 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. North Texas’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Washington State Offensive Stats & Trends

Washington State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.8% of 73 attempts this season — T-26th-worst among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.4% of attempts this season — 4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Washington State has gained 465 yards on 51 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Power 5 skill players. North Texas’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Washington State has gained 465 yards on 51 receptions (just 9.1 YPR) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. North Texas’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

Washington State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.8% of 73 attempts this season — T-26th-worst among FBS offenses. North Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.4% of attempts this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Washington State’s WRs has gained 359 yards on 35 receptions (just 10.3 YPR) this season — T-24th-worst among FBS WRs. North Texas’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among NonP5 defenses.

North Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

North Texas WRs have 6 receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

North Texas WRs had 40 receptions in the Red Zone last season– T-most among FBS Teams

North Texas’s offense has thrown for 553 passing yards in 2 games (276.5 YPG) this season — 31st-best among FBS offenses. Washington State’s defense has allowed just 83.0 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

North Texas WRs had 18 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter last season– most among FBS Teams

North Texas WRs were targeted 33.3 times per game (433/13) last season– 2nd-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.4

Washington State Defensive Stats & Trends

Washington State has allowed just 2.8 yards per completion (33 yards/12 completions) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.9

Washington State has allowed just 2.8 yards per completion (33 yards/12 completions) this season– best in FBS; Average: 10.6

Washington State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 45 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 17%.

Washington State have yet to sack an opposing QBs (20 pass attempts) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Washington State tackled opponents for a loss on just 56 of 427 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) last season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

North Texas Defensive Stats & Trends

North Texas forced 4 fumbles on 544 carries (136.0 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 43.4

North Texas has allowed 3.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (119 yards / 40 touches) this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 6.6

North Texas forced 4 fumbles on 544 carries (136.0 Carries Per Fumble) last season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 45.7

North Texas has not allowed an opponent to rush for 10 or more yards on any of their 27 carries this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%

North Texas allowed 231.2 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs in the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 141.6


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