Wake Forest vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 11

Virginia coach Tony Elliott reacts to a call on the field during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Duke in Durham, N.C., Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022.
(AP Photo/Ben McKeown)
  • Virginia is a -6.5 point favorite vs. Wake Forest
  • Wake Forest vs. Virginia Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Wake Forest (5-3) visit Scott Stadium to take on Virginia (8-1) on Nov. 8 in Charlottesville, VA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Virginia is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-115).

The Wake Forest vs. Virginia Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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Wake Forest vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Wake Forest+6.5 -10548.5 -115200
Virginia -6.5 -11548.5 -105-250

Wake Forest vs Virginia Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 67.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Wake Forest and Virginia, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Wake Forest vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Virginia will cover the spread with 54.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Wake Forest has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+7.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Wake Forest have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Wake Forest have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Wake Forest has hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.71 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Wake Forest Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wake Forest is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).

  • Wake Forest is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 13.94% ROI
  • Wake Forest is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.57% ROI
  • Wake Forest is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.45 Units / -5.08% ROI

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia iss 6-3 against the spread this college football season (+2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Virginia is 8-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.2 Units / 12.32% ROI
  • Virginia is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.55 Units / 5.53% ROI
  • Virginia is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.23% ROI

Wake Forest: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

Wake Forest have thrown 0 TDs on 53 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.6

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged 17.7 yards per reception (834 yards/47 catches) on 1st down this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.6

Wake Forest have thrown one TD on 150 pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Wake Forest

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia has gained 2,271 yards on 203 receptions (just 11.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC skill players. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-worst among ACC WRs. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 9.8 RAC since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Matchup Notes for Wake Forest vs. Virginia

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia has gained 2,271 yards on 203 receptions (just 11.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC skill players. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-worst among ACC WRs. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 9.8 RAC since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Wake Forest have thrown 0 TDs on 53 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.6

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged 17.7 yards per reception (834 yards/47 catches) on 1st down this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.6

Wake Forest have thrown one TD on 150 pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Wake Forest Offensive Stats & Trends

Wake Forest have thrown 0 TDs on 53 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.6

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged 17.7 yards per reception (834 yards/47 catches) on 1st down this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.6

Wake Forest have thrown one TD on 150 pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia has gained 2,271 yards on 203 receptions (just 11.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC skill players. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-worst among ACC WRs. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 9.8 RAC since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1

Wake Forest Defensive Stats & Trends

Wake Forest have thrown 0 TDs on 53 pass attempts (one TD every inf Pass Attempts) in the 4th quarter this season– T-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.6

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged 17.7 yards per reception (834 yards/47 catches) on 1st down this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.6

Wake Forest have thrown one TD on 150 pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season– 2nd-worst among FBS Offenses; Average: 19.4

Wake Forest Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 4.7 receptions (14 Rec/3 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1

Virginia has gained 2,271 yards on 203 receptions (just 11.2 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among ACC skill players. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s WRs has averaged just 11.9 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — T-worst among ACC WRs. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC to WRs since the 2024 season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia has averaged just 11.0 yards after the catch since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst among ACC skill players. Wake Forest’s defense has allowed just 9.8 RAC since the 2024 season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

Virginia Skill Players averaged a touchdown every 5.4 receptions (27 Rec/5 TDs) in the Red Zone last season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.1


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